Bitcoin (BTC) Real-Time Price Index and Chart — CoinDesk 20

The Bitcoin Bull Run Speculated With Surge in Market Cap of This Stablecoin

Is Bitcoin Mutating Into Stablecoin? After the drastic dip with the Bitcoin price in March 2020, the digital asset managed to recover in a very short span of time by attaining above $9000 within two months. But later it continued to oscillate in a very narrow price range.  In the above chart, the constant trend […]
submitted by FuzzyOneAdmin to fuzzyone [link] [comments]

Tezos, Binance Coin, Dash Price Analysis: 25 June

Bitcoin’s price plunged on the charts yet again, with the same falling by over $500 in a span of 20 hours. Owing to the high correlation indices shared by the market’s alts with the world’s largest and most dominant cryptocurrency, the former fell too, with the likes of Tezos, Binance Coin, and Dash, among them. […]
submitted by FuzzyOneAdmin to fuzzyone [link] [comments]

The future of buttcoin security and the fabled fee market.

Considering the recent events and premature "halving" before halving we got to see a glimpse of the future. Reminder - security of bitcoin blockchain is overwhelmingly paid for with block rewards. Fees are practically insignificant in comparison. This is temporary subsidy that is going to be significantly reduced in coming years if blockchain gods allow.
Many blockchain bros (not all) hope that the coinbase reward (the block reward) will eventually be replaced with "healthy fee market" whatever it might be (and preferably sooner rather than later). Since bitcoin fans love their charts and predictions I decided to play along and examine the history of fee market and see if it teaches us anything. Let's take a look, shall we?
As you can see, the history of fee market shows that the market....doesn't like fees, at all. It naturally gravitates towards spending less or waiting for better timing rather than spending more and outbidding each other at all costs ad infinitum. The only time a fee market strong enough to sustain the dwindling blockchain security happened was during the top of the bubble, the absolute climax of unsustainable, irrational, international mania when people spent 30 bucks on average and those more impatient even 50 bucks or more in a rush to the checkout line. Blockchain was humongously clogged. Historically it was a short lived aberration borne of massive fomo inducing hysteria that quickly illustrated just how slow and expesive the whole shebang is if it is actually used by the people and led to an embarrasing display that caused much disillusionment, confusion and disgust afterwards (some people had their transactions stuck for weeks or even months).
So history and data teaches us people hate fee market and they avoid it when they can. And let's be frank, fees for anything suck, nobody likes them, nobody likes friction, people like FREE. The second thing blockchain bros love are divagations about game theoretic incentives that make the bitcoin blockchain work (selfish desires and actions, not altruism). So what human nature teaches us about the fee market? Well first of all people hate paying for shit and they prefer to follow the path of least resistance and cheap out whenever possible. I mean who doesn't like to save some money, right? This is consistent with observations of fee market, usually it results in self cleaning, self balancing act of organic clearing of the mempool after it becomes a bit too bloated. People who aren't in a huge rush decide to send their transactions later or set a low fee and simply wait for them to go through. Those who can pay, pay and come first and eventually the mempool cleans and every "hobo transaction" goes through anyway most of the time. This is also consistent with behavior of people who advise to follow the path of least resistance when responding to complaints about fees. It's just natural to us.
The fee market is as of now a myth or a desired outcome supported by NOTHING and it is inconsistent with 10 years worth of behavioral data. You're dealing with humans, not robots so expecting you can engineer them to act against their selfish biases and observable behavioral patterns is about as smart as engineering plants with lysenkoism. The plants don't care about your belief system, they work according to their nature. So do humans. You can work within the framework you have or you can 'prax it out' and conjure scenarios disconnected from observable reality.
Maybe I'm missing something critical, some untold secret or some secret weapon blockchain bros will deploy when the reward drops so much it becomes a serious concern but it seems to me fee market expectation (again, based on nothing) will result in a bitter disappointment.
Some who never bothered to do some basic math believe this is a matter to be thinking about around 2140 or something like that when reward subsidy ends forever but the brutal nature of constant halvings rears its ugly head quite fast. Remember 2 halvings slash reward to a quarter. 3 halvings slash reward from 100% to mere 12.5% of whatever you started with. For example when price was 10k miners earned 1800 x 10k = 18 million as a whole. That was the security budget of the entire system. At current halved prices (say ~5k) and after next subsequent halving you will see de facto the quartering of a reward to a measly 900 x 5k = 4.5 million. That's 75% cut in the span of several months. Ouch. Look what happened to Litecoin hashrate, it's a harbinger of total devastation. Now even if the price rebounds you just kick the can down the road. In 2024 the reward is slashed to 450, in 2028 it goes to 225. At "reasonable" 10k price it outputs tiny 2.25 million respectively. And then it halves, and halves, and halves, and halves. If the fee market won't pick up and/or the price won't go to some unreal levels...yeah, you're gonna hear the "inflation" talk eventually bros. Prepare for it, this is the idea that talking heads who preached about unassailable 21m limit will entertain increasingly more often in the coming years.
Maybe there will be paradigm shift and every remaining hardcore holdout who bought into initial unchangeable 21m limit propaganda will be shunned and gaslighted? You will see new civil wars over this, that's for sure.
Ps. Yes, in case you wondered this is good for bitcoin ( I mean everything is).
submitted by Cthulhooo to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Dash competitive basket index for Thursday, 2 April, 2020. Dash is still bottom of the barrel.

Dash competitive basket index for Thursday, 2 April, 2020. Dash is still bottom of the barrel.
Dash is still the bottom of the barrel in performance today. The alt coin sector looks like it could make a rally, if it’s not a bull trap.

  1. Dash outperformed 0 of the 20 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (0% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 44.0%
  2. Dash outperformed 2 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (20% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 55.0%.
  3. In total, Dash outperformed 2 of the top 30 cryptos (7% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 47.6%.
  4. Bitcoin dominance jumped up 6/10ths to 64.4%
  5. 18 of the top 30 cryptos beat Bitcoin (60%).
  6. On the 7 day time frame, 21 of the top 31 cryptos (68%) were in the green.
  7. On the 24 hour time frame, 27 of the top 31 (87%) cryptos were in the green.
  8. On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 9 of the top 30 cryptos (29%)
* The 30 day SMA is the Simple Moving Average for the last 30 days. It is represented with the red line. The blue line is the daily Dash performance based on the price change over a one week period. (win rate, i.e. how many competitors we beat expressed as a percent, not unlike a batting average.) As always, this is not investment advise. This is presented for entertainment and educational purposes only. Do your own homework. Don’t trust some random guy on the internet. All crypto is risky. Don’t invest more in crypto than you can afford to lose.
^ Dash vs the 20 cryptos listed above us. Yup, looks like a dead cat bounce. I'm sure it's just a coincicence, but if you look at the graph just before the huge recovery in January there was a dead cat bounce just like this one. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

^ Dash vs the 10 cryptos listed below us. At least we beat _something._

^ Dash vs the top 30 cryptos in the world. Doesn't take a rocket scientist....

^ The new chart is actually helpful and hopeful today. Red line is % of top 30 alts that are in the green on the 24 hour time span, and blue line is the % of top 30 alts that are in the green on the 7 day time frame. Red is once again above blue, and blue looks like it has made a bottom. Watch this space.
submitted by solarguy2003 to dashpay [link] [comments]

BTC Fees amplified today by last night's difficulty adjustment. Current (peak of day) next-block fees are testing new highs.

Compounding Factors Causing the Fee Explosion
Over the past 2 weeks, a large sum of SHA256 hashpower has come online as the rewards for mining in real-dollar value had been increasing.
The increase over the past 2016 blocks was so great in fact that it caused an 11% jump in difficulty last night.
To add to that, the price retreated back to the 2-week average meaning some hashpower has left after the price adjustment. You can see how far behind schedule the current block times are here.
That has compounded to set new highs in sat/byte fees and has simultaneously escalated the price per transaction drastically
While BTC blocks may be able to clear overnight when mining is running 10-20% above the expected block rate, it's pretty clear from history that every day has a peak usage that cannot be handled by the network. After readjustment, it looks like only the lull of the weekend can currently clear the backlog, and only just.
I recommend checking Johoe's Mempool size in MB graph for a longer span. In the 3 month graph, you can really start to see each daily spike, weeks where the mempool only cleared on the weekend, and even a couple of weekends where the mempool didn't clear.
So What is Each Blockchain Currently Capable Of?
Current Segwit usage has been stagnant at around 40-45% for the past year now, but let's just say for argument's sake that segwit usage hits 100%. This represents a capacity increase of the BTC blockchain of only around 25%. That means that even if BTC hit perfect segwit usage, it could only handle around 500k transactions per day instead of 400k.
This bottleneck does not exist on BCH.
BCH can currently handle 16M blocks with no issue as proved by last year's stress-test and it should now be able to handle full 32MB blocks given recent parallelization improvements. The throughput of even 16MB blocks would allow for somewhere around an 8M TX/day average.
Bitcoin Cash is absolutely equipped to deal with an order of magnitude more transactions than Bitcoin today while maintaining 1sat/byte fees.
Blockchain technology can do so much more than BTC gives it credit for.
submitted by CaptainPatent to btc [link] [comments]

For Trading Jan 15

For Trading January 15th
DJIA Catches UP But Doesn’t Hold
Bank Numbers Great But not For WFC
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market started off higher in the DJIA but lower in the Naz and S&P. The gains were on the back of the JPM and Citi numbers, while many of the FAANG names were tired. For the next 4 hours the DJIA clawed its way higher, to a new intraday high, but the “Tweeter-in-Chief” let the cat out of the bag that tariffs were not going away before elections. The market went from the high of 29,045 +147 straight down to -10 before recovering somewhat to close +32.62 (.11%), while the NASDAQ was -22.60 (.24%) and S&P 500 -4.98 (.15%), the Russell +6.13 (.37%) and the DJ Transports was the big winner +101.77 (.92%) on the back of DAL earnings dragging up the airlines and some positive action in the railroads. Market internals were slightly positive on NYSE at 4:1 but Naz was just 1:1. DJIA was 16:14 up with the only double digit changes, UNH +16 and JPM +11 and AAPL -29DPs. The feature of the day was the continuation of the big shorts running early only to falter by mid-day. AAPL was as high as $317.57 but fell back to $312.17 before the close. TSLA hit $547.41 +20 before coming back to $537.92. BYND managed a move back to $135.23 +20 before closing near the low @ $117.05 and then rallied to $126.30 in extended trading on news of a supply agreement but is currently $119.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: As I mentioned above, today’s market was generally running into exhaustion on the FAANG and other momentum names. The JPM and C earnings were excellent, but clearly WFC was a major disappointment. Margins and expenses were the main culprits and the stock, which has been on a steady slide since Q1 2018 from $66.31 on the news that it has been a dishonest, ill-run company which defrauded its customers (you might note my personal experience with them) finally got a new CEO, but he makes the Mark Zuckerburg “apology tour” look tame. I’m sure that people with short memories and attention spans will forget and come back into the stock, but they have a long way to go to rebuild their reputation. The stock closed $49.30 -2.81 (5.39%) and is down from $54 in the last 6 days. JPM was the star with better than expected numbers and return on equity and interest margins, but even it fell off late in the day and after trading over $140 it finished $138.80 +1.60 (1.17%). C did the same and after hitting $83.11 closed $81.91 +1.26 (1.56%).
Momenta (MNTA), a local biotech here in Cambridge working on immune-related diseases, gave guidance that was in-line for YE 2019, and gave guidance for growth in 2020 as well updates on trials and milestone expectations for the year, and the market took notice and the stock, up from $9.51 this past summer, and has had a steady climb to close yesterday $20.50 finished the day $25.36 +4.86 (23.71%) and traded $27.35 in extended hours with a last of $26.65. Also in the Bio-Pharma area was bad news from Stemline (STML) on reduced revenues from ELZONRIS their drug for BPDCN, blastic plasmacyytoi dendril cell neoplasm, an orphan disease with no other approved treatment. Unfortunately, the numbers were a bit lighter than expected and the stock, down from $11.38 on 12/24, had fallen to close yesterday $9.38, and fell on the news to $6.01 and closed $6.57 -2.86 (30.33%).
And while not the typical HOMERUN OF THE DAY the two-day move in TLRY bears mention. The stock was up yesterday to $17.37 +1.82 (11.7%)%) announced tonight that they have a new CFO Michael Kruteck (from Molson-Coors) and a new COO, Jon Levin (formerly with Revlon) and the stock went as high as $22.65 before finishing $21.95 +4.58 (26.36%) and a two-day move of $6.40 (41%). It has a way to go to try the highs at $300 in 2018.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB 5.07, ABBV +.46, REGN +8.89, ISRG -.43, MYL +.42, TEVA +.84 (9.16%) we took a nice gin on our 2/10 calls, VRTX +3.26, BHC +.40, INCY +4.60 (5.97%), ICPT +4.29 (3.96%), LABU +4.69, and IBB $121.11 +1.95 (1.64%).
CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER with TLRY (see above), CGC +.99, CRON +.37, GWPH +1.89, ACB +.11, PYX +.19, APHA -.35, NBEV unchanged, ACRGF +.03, CURLF +.44, KERN +.14 and MJ $17.99 +.65 (3.75%). This was the group I called the best chance for a January Effect trade.
DEFENSE: was MIXED with LMT -3.02, RTN +.25, GD -.16, TXT +.31, UTX -.51, NOC -3.83, BWXT -.35, TDY +.90, and ITA $231.49 +1.06 (.46%).
RETAIL was MIXED with M -.09, JWN -.37, KSS +.29, DDS +.84, JCP -.04 (4.8%), WMT +.18, TGT +1.14, TJX +.20, RL -.36, UAA +.83, LULU -1.41, TPR +.53, CPRI -.34, and XRT $45.61 +.27 (.60%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -11.67, AMZN -26.25, AAPL -5.21, FB -2.91, NFLX -.92, NVDA -5.28, TSLA +11.62, BABA -4.68, BIDU -2.70, BOX -.47, IBM -.82, BA +1.80, CAT -.13 and XLK $95.08 -.45 (.47%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.28, JPM +1.70, BAC +.37, MS +.12, C +1.35, PNC +.91, AIG -.28, TRV +.39, AXP +.46 and XLF $30.84 -.08 (.19%).
OIL, $58.23 + .15. Today’s action was a quiet and short-range day. While we may have to test the $55 – 56.00 range again, if we turn higher now, I’d take a shot on this oversold market. The stocks were MIXED TO HIGHER with the market and XLE $59.84 +.01 (.02%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,544.60 -6.00 after breaking out “of the box” earlier last week, and the Iran news, we traded as high as $1,613 before turning down. I bought the GLD calls after we traded down to my area of support around $1,545 and after the small rally it fell back today. We got stopped out on the 50% Down Rule today but I expect that we will go back in if we stabilize overnight.
BITCOIN: closed $8,750 +550. We broke to the upside today and I was looking for a close above $8,280, which we easily cleared. I now expect a test of $9,200 to $9,500. We own 750 GBTC with an average of $8.99. GBTC closed $10.03 +.89 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to optionstrading [link] [comments]

Recap of AMA with Zac on July 3 and Q2 report

Dear Pundians,
Thank you for participating in the AMA session with Pundi X co-founder and CEO Zac Cheah.
For those of you who may have missed it, the live recording of the AMA session held on July 3 at 10:00 am GMT+8, tackling Q2 progress and addressing questions and concerns by the community members, can be viewed here. A side note that today’s AMA video quality and setting was not ideal. We acknowledge this situation and will make improvement for our next AMA session.
You may also find a summary of the Q2 progress presentation as well as all the detail Q&A below.
## Pundi X Q2 2019 Highlights
* Pundi X has integrated more public chains into our products. In Q2, we completed integration of Binance Chain. NEM chain is in the work. As of today we’ve launched BNB, the Binance Chain native Coin and XEM, NEM native coin on Pundi X payment platform. We will integrate at least one more public chain in Q3.
* The transactions on XPOS for Q2 is 15.5 million in USD, which is close to 300% quarterly growth. The number of transactions is 29,367, which leads to a 11% growth QoQ.
* XPOS has successfully received FCC and KC certifications. A new certification for Latin American market is on the way. * To expand XPOS footprint, Pundi X’s integration with a new leading mainstream point-of-sales device is in the work. Stay tuned for the announcement.
* Pundi X Open Platform was launched in May, 2019, which now supports ERC20 and BEP2 token listing. Moving forward, we will continue to support tokens from other public chains.
* A 3,000 XPASS order from DigiX, a gold-based token, and a 10,000 XPASS order from BitCobie this quarter.
* XPOS is spread in use in over 30 countries. We’ve published a map of XPOS location of self-report XPOS merchant directory. You can find a list of selected XPOS merchants at [https://www.pundix.com/products\](https://www.pundix.com/products). * The QoQ growth of XWallet is tremendous at 43%. In the previous quarter, we have less than 20k users, whereas in Q2 we have hit 297k XWallet users.
More updates on XWallet:
* Supported BNB and NEM tokens; 2FA, face ID, and optimized SMS serviceAvailable on iOS, Android as well as in Samsung Galaxy Store
New features coming up in Q3:- DApp integration - Decentralized wallet- In-app crypto payments - Chat service, which will be compatible with a commonly used chat app- f(x) testnet features to be rolled out first in XWallet
## Other notices coming up in Q3 2019
* The Q2 token removal will take place on July 14, 2019, which will involve in total 34 billion of NPXS and NPXSXEM (22 million worth in USD) removal. In the past 365 days, we’ve removed a total of 36.1 million US dollar worth of NPXS and NPXSXEM.
Before Q2 removal, the total supply of NPXS ERC20 is 266,962,422,906.53 and NPXSXEM is 95,816,218,929. [See Q1 removal here.](/pundix/recap-of-ama-with-zac-on-july-3-and-q2-report-a23de165dd28)
* [NPXSXEM will be ported to Binance Chain from July 20](/pundix/npxsxem-will-be-on-binance-chain-c6485f17726b). * XPhone pre-order will start in late July with a new product name. Stay tuned. Check out the teaser video that we are releasing it across our communication channels. ## Q&A
## On XPOS
* **Where are we on official global location of XPOS?**
Zac: We have made a map on our official website that merchants can self report and feature their locations. It’s at [https://www.pundix.com/product\](https://www.pundix.com/product). We’ll be increasing and updating the map once we have permission form the merchants to update their locations.
* **The marketing from pundi has shifted from 100,000–700,000 xpos units by 2021 to 100,000. I understand the bear market has affected this but please share the strategy moving forward to hit your goal. How do you feel about hitting this goal?**
Zac: The 100K XPOS target has always been the initial goal and it’s stated in our whitepaper. And we are still working on achieving the goal by the end of 2021. Part of our growth strategy is to also explore the possibility to port our platform to traditional POS manufacturers to increase the adoption, which is ongoing at the moment.
* **1 year ago you sent 5000 XPOS somewhere. When, at least half of them, will be working? 3 year target was 100,000 by 2021. Now we have only 150 units, how do you expect to reach this goal?**
Zac: Yes, we have shipped thousands of XPOS to over 30 countries in the world. The 150 you’ve mentioned are the featured merchants which are published on the map. The active XPOS devices are deployed over 33 countries and we are actively talking to B2B partners to have higher wholesale and big deployments.
* **How many XPOS are live and used?**
Zac: We have gone through a very serious bear market, and some of the initial inbound requests for XPOS are not delivered. However, we are working slowly but surely with our Business Development team to not just roll-out into individual buyers, such as what we did on Pizza Day, but also to B2B partners. With the certifications approved, that will also help us to officially roll out to some of the key markets.
Individual merchants can use XWallet collection feature to accept crypto payment with QR code. For the merchants who have physical offline storefronts, they can use XPOS to enable the instant crypto transaction seamlessly. Moreover, as mentioned previously, we are exploring the integration on leading traditional POS terminal so that their distributors have option to enable crypto transaction feature. As for the challenge to adopt XPOS, it is the regulatory compliance in different countries. For this, our legal team think ahead and encourage our merchants to complete KYC.
I must be very honest to say the activation takes longer time than we expect but it will be worth at the end.
* **What’s the average number of transactions per xpos in use?**
Zac: The transaction number has increased very well. The number of each XPOS differs, due to the frequency of using crypto currency to purchase item or crypto assets. There’s no standard answer to this, but overall we see the transaction number and volume are going up.
* **How do you plan to reach the target of 100,000 by 2021?**
Zac: One of the challenges that we have is regulatory compliances in different countries. There are certain markets that do not allow crypto currencies and some require a clear approval for us to deploy XPOS. We are working on both challenges by talking to governments and applying for certifications. So how we plan to reach 100,000 XPOS user by 2021 is to work with distributors, B2B partners on a government / business level, and with existing POS companies to integrate our software solution into the system.
* **We understand as there was bear market and hence Xpos usage demand was low. Are you guys seeing growth of Xpos usage with current market conditions. Can you guys put some statistics comparison like last 30 days Xpos usage vs any month from bear market usage?**
Zac: It is very clear that as we moved out from the bear market, the demand for XPOS has been increasing. As we’ve shared just now both the transaction number and volume of Q2 have beaten Q1. We’ll be able to share more transaction numbers once we receive approval from our XPOS merchants.
One exciting thing is that, with the listing of different tokens, we also see users using these tokens as a way to transact on XPOS, which means we will be having more ways to transact and this is a growth point for XPOS.
* **When will there be more details for XPHONE and XPOS HANDY?**
Zac: For XPOS handy, we have finished production and it will be released in Q3
* **When will the iOS version of XWallet and XPOS be fully translated to other languages?**
Zac: Right now, the XWallet has Traditional Chinese, Korean, Spanish, German and English. With the latest version update, it now includes Portuguese. XPOS also comes with many languages and we hope to finish with more language, either working with professionals or volunteers. If you’re interested in volunteering, please contact us.
* **When will the Merchant back office have Product Registration and SKU id ability and also integrate with other POS software?** * **When will the top-up feature go away for XPOS to allow liquidity for XPOS**
Zac: We constantly update features in XPOS and merchant backend to make it easier for distributors and merchants to use. We understand that one of the ways for mass adoption is to enhance our distributor management system. With that, the distributors can manage manay XPOS at one time with different merchants.
Please stay tuned as we announce more and more functions of this feature.
## On Dubai
* **When will we see the deployment of the XPOS in Dubai?** * **Can we spend NPXS on the Dubai XPOS?**
Zac: As with all big projects there are a lot of moving parts, that includes working very closely with the local government, in Dubai’s case, the Credit Bureau of the Finance Ministry. Things are progressing for the Dubai project but due to confidentiality agreements with the parties involved, we cannot reveal much. All we can say is that we and our Dubai partners are working hard to have XPOS roll-out in the Dubai market and the UAE.
We are also discussing aggressively with Dubai partners whether to include crypto assets in the XPOS in Dubai. That clearly will involve local compliance and legal for that to happen.
* **Your system upgrades expect merchants to have downtime on their XPOS terminals, can you explain if you plan to run a business why this would be considered feasible (specially at the rate you have been doing your upgrades)?**
Zac: Yes, the benefit / strength of the XPOS is that most of the updates can be done on the fly. For example, when we have a token update on our XPOS where developers submit their tokens on Open Platform, the updates of this token are on the fly, which means that once we approve the token on our Open Platform, it will automatically appear on XPOS without any software updates.
The great thing that we believe about XPOS is not just the support of crypto assets, but also the ability to update most things on the fly, which means that whenever we have a good feature or a new token, the updates will be done instantaneously.
* **Can you guys arrange at least a community voting which is the next blockchain we would like to see next in XPOS? Voting will help to prioritize to chose the projects.**
Zac: One of the reasons why BNB is being listed on the XPOS is simply because of its popularity and also our user demand, in a way that we are already answering to our community’s request.
Right now, our main focus is getting all the tokens submitted on Open Platform to be listed on the XPOS. The submission process includes legal and compliance valid, so our legal and compliance teams are working hard to make sure that we have more tokens to roll out onto Open Platform, which means that they will be on XPOS, XWallet, and XPASS.
As to a specific voting mechanism, we’d like to consider that and hopefully we’ll be able to run a specific voting for the chain which users would like to see.
* **While comparing Xpos handy to Square POS devices at least with mobile it’s very cheap like under $30 and easy to use. When can we expect such light weight and cheaper version for XPOS? Is team working on such devices ?**
Zac: There are different POS companies around the globe and pour focus is to work with these POS companies with our software, so that a crypto sales feature will be part of the existing POS system. The more support of crypto asset usage using our software on existing POS, the better it is for global adoption.
We actually strongly believe that the pricing of our POS system is competitive in the market. And one of the great features of the XPOS is that the merchants will not need not to pay a certain percentage to existing acquirer but to be able to earn certain percentage from each transaction. That is the key differentiator for merchant to want to adopt this.
* **From the website with some of the key Countries for XPOS adoption looks great. However, the concern is for Venezuela, there is no reference link like the others have. Can you guys add the link with details to clear the ambiguity?**
Zac: Let’s give a little bit more patience so that we can actually release more information about our Venezuelan partnership. The good news is that we expect concrete news from Venezuela in the coming 2 weeks. So stay up-to-date about our Venezuelan roll out on XPOS, the best way is to subscribe to our telegram group for Venezuela.
## On Partnerships
* **Are there some major partnership in the works? I’m also interested in how you do immediate transactions? Do you anticipate scaling issues?**
Zac: The way XPOS is being designed is that when you use your crypto assets to purchase, it will have instantaneous confirmation because the action is an off-chain process. An on-chain action happens when a user who owns crypto assets in our system transferring the assets out of the Pundi X ecosystem to their own wallets; or to transfer crypto assets in Pundi X from an off-chain to a private wallet, which we will have very soon on XWallet itself.
That is why we are able to handle scaling. When a person wants to use crypto currency to buy a coffee, the transaction will happen instantaneously.
For specific partnership, especially with B2B partnership, we oblige to the NDA that we have signed. But if you follow us closely, you’ll know that we go to different parts of the world, talking to major companies to try to land more deals so that NPXS usage will increase dramatically.
* **Any big partnerships for making xphone or using the software for xBlockchain?**
Zac: These partnerships are also subjected to NDA, so please be patient for us to release more news.
* **When will XPOS have approval to process Visa and MasterCard payments?**
Zac: We have met representatives from these players including some of the key management people. They are obviously looking into crypto currency attentively, and we hope that there’s something we can do with MasterCard and/or Visa.
This is something that the community has suggested and we agree fully. Please allow us with some time to work on this. We have also showcased XPOS to the CEO of MasterCard. For what or when will anything happen, please wait for our official announcement.
* **What’s the status on Quantum fund and their contribution or involvement with Pundi’s project?**
Zac: We announced last year that we are creating a fund to invest in projects beneficial to our ecosystem. We’ve identified some interesting projects, and we have invested in at least 1 project. The reason why we’re investing in that project is because of the services that it will bring onto the Pindi X ecosystem. So the purpose of the investment of the companies is that these companies in turn will benefit on our ecosystem. This is our key consideration.
The team has evaluated the projects that will benefit the Pundi X / Function X ecosystem. Vic and his team will be able to reveal more details on the companies we have invested in and how they will contribute to our ecosystem in Q3.
* **Recent update on NPXSXEM is highly ambiguous as mentioned that it will be now BEP token and later once FX goes live it will get back to Fx platform. Why you guys had so rush to use Binance chain only for few months? Isn’t you guys switching to much in a short time span?**
Zac: Liquidity and utility have been an issue for NPXSXEM. Due to the design philosophy and the limit of token that can be created on NEM’s smart contract, we are only able to create a small number of tokens on NPXSXEM. By moving into the Binance chain for NPXSXEM, the BEP2 token version will be able to support all the NPXSXEM tokens, which means that we’ll migrate and also be able to make sure all the NPXSXEM tokens are under the same contract address.
We believe with the strong liquidity, we will be able to give our NPXSXEM token holders a good reason of what the token holders have been waiting for. We hope to bring NPXSXEM to match the level of NPXS.
* **When #XRP?**
Zac: Our OpenPlatform is a currency agnostic platform, which means that we will work on integrating public chain as well as tokens that are most requested by the users. We’ll also be looking into the listing of different tokens that are being mentioned by the community.
As said, we will have at least one more public chain integration in Q3, perhaps even more.
* **Are you as a company going to try and connect with libra? If they have said they want to be a payment remittance service, have Square, PayPal, Visa on board I as an investor would prefer you try to join them rather than beat such large competitors**
Zac: Of course, we’ll be delighted to work with Facebook and also the Libra coin. Pundi X and XPOS is a currency agnostic / currency neutral platform, if there’s opportunity to list Libra coin or work with Facebook in different ways to promote crypto currency adoption, we’ll certainly look into that and work on reaching out to them.
## On Trading
* **Can you confirm during AMA, Pundi team is not involved with any trading with their own token like selling over time to manage the fund to run the company.**
Zac: All the wallet addresses of the team holdings are disclosed and transparent. This is one of the first things that we did after ICO. Hence, our token holdings are transparent and everyone can monitor our fund transactions. Also, we have strict internal financial regulation and compliance, shows that we are here to build a long-term project.
The best way to make NPXS or the NPXSXEM to rise is real daily life use case.
* **When will you stop manipulating NPXS chart?**
Zac: Our focus has always been and will be building great products. The more product usage, the demands for NPXS and NPXSXEM will increase. Let’s address again that, Pundi X the company is NOT involved in any manipulation of the NPXS price.
There are trading teams, market makers, financial institutions that profit from the drop and rise of token prices in the crypto market. The good thing about NPXS is that we have managed to create a high liquidity by listing on 40+ exchanges and having global trades and demand from all over the world. We hope this and coupled with the fact that we are a solid product and roll out the use cases, the demand of NPXS will only continue to rise and will be able to deter any of the traders or speculators there is for NPXS.
These traders gain profit from manipulating tokens whether BTC or other tokens. In fact, the traditional financial markets have similar challenges as well. What I want to stress is that, we at Pundi X, do NOT speculate or manipulate the price. We work very hard to create demands for NPXS and as a company, it is only beneficial for us to see the prices of NPXS and NPXSXEM rise.
* **Can we please address the elephant in the room which is the Binance bot with huge sell walls and buy walls causing huge distress and concern among users?**
Zac: First, I cannot confirm nor deny that whether Binance has a bot. I think this is something that you need to ask Binance. We need to work with Binance because Binance has one of the biggest liquidities, if not the greatest liquidity, for NPXS. The best way to counter manipulators is to create more use case, more demand and more acceptance of our tokens.
* **Why on almost all exchanges do you not offer a USDT trading pair?**
Zac: We have USDT trading pairs on Bittrex, Bittrue, and more. In addition, we have fiat pairs in Korean Won, IDR, INR, and Turkish liras. We will continue to work on adding trading pairs for NPXS to make it more liquidate.
* **Why don’t you offer a stable coin sell and purchase on the xpos to help with adoption? Places in Africa with volatile currencies would go crazy for this.**
Zac: It’s a great observation. This is a request that’s been asked from many users. We’re working on stable coin listing on XPOS and hopefully it’ll come soon. Stable coin requires a greater compliance and legal validate, which we have been working on since months ago and we hope to have the stable coin up in XPOS soon.
* **When will you add an active tracker for coin burn, whether its measured in usd, NPXS or whatever you choose. The community has been asking for this on twitter, reddit and telegram for this entire year.**
Zac: It will be hard for us to have a daily tracker of the coin burn, but what we might be able to work on is a tracker which have shown all of the tokens that have been removed from the usage. Thank you for giving us this great suggestion and we will work on it in some form.
Zac: Our token supply has always been specified in our white paper, and as promised in our white paper, we will continue to remove tokens through usage and use cases, which we’re working on all the time.
* **Price movement. When will NPXS go to which price?**
Zac: We cannot comment on the change of the price. Our focus is on building products. We hope by doing that the NPXS value will go up. Again, there’s no way that we can comment on the price.
**I believe that burning tokens every 14 weeks keeps the price suppressed and will only lead to huge pumps and dumps. Imo, If the burns were more frequent, the price would move organically.**
Zac: We continue removing tokens quarterly per advised by our legal and compliance team.
**Is it mandatory npxs swap? What happens for token we have in binance?**
Zac: No it’s not a mandatory NPXS swap for FX.
**How many NPXS or NPXSXEM was converted?**
Zac: In Q2, we will remove 29B NPXSXEM and 9B NPXS.
## On XWallet
* **Why not put in XWallet like the place where we can buy and sell like restaurants and shops?**
Zac: You are correct. In fact, if you look at XWallet, there is a merchant feature, whereby you can register as a merchant. By becoming a merchant, you will be able to print out your QR code and stick it on your restaurant. People are able to make payment through this QR code. This will act like a mini-XPOS.
* **In addition to that having multiple different blockchain in XWallet will increase the XWallet adoption. Hence, we would like to see aggressive game plan and execution from the team and would like to hear that**
Zac: That’s a great suggestion. Every day we want to increase use cases for XWallet. In fact, our XWallet update is one of the most frequent in the market. Within 5 months, we have over 10 updates on iOS and Google Play. This does not include soft update which happens every several days. In my view, the effort is very tremendous.
* **Is there any plan to add Swap option within XWallet so that people can trade the coins within XWallet?**
Zac: Yes, there’s such plan and in fact there is an upcoming feature that people will be able to use coins in XWallet to exchange into other things. The exact form and format have not been reviewed. We hope to share more when we have concrete example. But what you suggested is what we are planning for months ago.
* **When will XPOS and XWallet have fiat on ramps?**
Zac: This is a good question. It’s not only involved with regulatory compliance but also involved the technical part. This is also something we are planning for months. Once approved, hopefully we are able to support fiat currency on ramps and off ramps on XWallet.
**On Others*\*
* **How is the internal organization doing? Currently how many employees work for Pundi? Currently how many job positions are open?**
Zac: Pundi X has grown tremendously. We are now having over seven offices around the globe. I’m sitting in the Singapore office. We have office in Jakarta, Taiwan, Tokyo, Shenzhen, São Paulo and London. These are the places we have physical offices and house approximately 100 full time employees of Pundi X.
The positions open from Pundi X are legal associate in Singapore and other offices. We are looking for more R&D people, especially in Taiwan. We are looking at marketing and PR people in different parts of the world. And we are looking for POS distributors. As a POS distributor, you will work with our business development team and also our technical team to roll out many XPOS which you have a network to control in your local market.
* **Would you consider removing the KYC to allow u.s. holder to stake and be rewarded?**
Zac: We would love to have more users, including US. However, our compliance and legal advisors have not allowed us to accept US holders to stake and be rewarded.
I’m sorry to say that but this is after serious consideration to make such a decision. In fact, it is a very hard decision because we have healthy user base in the US.
will continue to monitor the situation in the different markets and be compliant. There are also ways to be rewarded when using XWallet service without KYC. We are looking into to explore more on this and launch new features. Hopefully we are able to bring the beta version for you to test this week or next.
**On XPhone*\*
* **Where are we on pre-sale announcement of Xphone? It was highlights of Q2 goal. If we are getting delay, that’s ok. But at least community will have some clarification why it’s getting late and when approximately it coming?**
Zac: Pre-sale order will start this month. It’s likely the end of July. Pre-sale will take place in different channel including the official website and XWallet. Apart of our own channel, the pre-sale will go live on a 3rd party channel. People will be able to pre-order crypto either in crypto or in fiat.
* **Can you discuss in AMA, is participants can pay with Crypto or Credit/debit card or in both ways?**
Zac: As a crypto company, we prefer payment in crypto, but fiat, Visa, MasterCard, and other traditional payment methods will be accepted on different pre-order channels. Stay tuned for pre-order which will happen in late July.
* **Will the Xphone be open to purchase in all regions of the world?**
Zac: Yes, pre-orders will be able to be done on-line, and products will be shipped from our offices to users in different parts of the world.
* **Will the blockchain mode on the Xphone be operable during the testnet or will this function not work until mainnet?**
Zac: XWallet and XPhone are the first channel and avenue for Function X testnet, so once the testnet is operateble, we will start to engage certain services on XWallet and XPhone into Function X testnet, and ultimately into mainnet. Slowly but surely.
* **Does Xphone have hard protective cover,extra Sim slot, also is it enhanced with ip68 water rating?**
Zac: XPhone will not be waterproof, so please do not submerge XPhone into water. XPhone will definitely be eavesdrop-proof because we’re using a blockchain mode, only you and you control your own conversation.
* **Which country accept the Xphone?** * **Will I also be able to use the SIM-card?** * **The blockchain modus will work in every country (what in the absense of nodes)?** * **Will the XPhone I buy now support updates in the future?**
Zac: People from any country will be able to buy XPhone on-line. You will be able to use a SIM for we have built a SIM slot. Wherever you are, the XPhone can be turned on to become a node.
Will XPhone support future updates? Yes, of course. Just like the XPOS, we support silent update. It will be like how we support XPOS, many updates. The updates will always be supported on XPhone.
**On Function X*\*
* **When is the detail white paper coming for FunctionX? Why the team is very resistive to have well documented white paper? We need scientific approach and well documentation on FunctionX to have developers to be more involved.**
Zac: Yes, developer involvement is a key criterion of the growth of Function X. We have done 2 things, one is that we have set up Function X Foundation which is led by David Ben Kay and will involve third party adviser and board members. Second, we have set up a developer relations team led by one of our own members as well. This team will work on creating developer documents, developer demos and sample, so that excellent developers can tap into working with Function X resources.
The first version of developer documentation is ready in English and Chinese. We are still polishing up the documents and hopefully to release them soon.
We are also working with third party developers, and are engaging at least 2 third party developer companies, so that we can help create their services on Function X and also XWallet.
We are hoping to showcase a smooth and usable service to the audience, we think this is the key criterion of the Function X growth.
Thank you for this suggestion. We need to update more often on github developer documentation as well.
As for the white paper, we did not have one per se because Function X did not do an ICO. But we will continue to update our white paper and include not only technical details, but also details on the chain and how we can get more developers and users so that the future hardware will be added as a node and you will be rewarded financially, at least through our ecosystem genesis fund. Please stay tuned and there are a lot of things going on in the company. Each and one of us is working hard.
* **Why does the FX ecosystem need a decentralized OS?**
Zac: The mantra of Function X is decentralization and having private control of your data. A full private control of your data comes with a decentralized system not just in transmission of your data, but with the operating system built fully for decentralization , which includes a transmission protocol replacing http. The apps uploaded into Function X will be decentralized as well as the data that is stored on the app, which means that how BitCoin or crypto assets are verified on different nodes will also be part of the way we store data and content.
The decentralized OS is key to fulfilling a decentralized environment for a more private and free usage.
* **What about FX are you most excited about?**
Zac: We are actually creating a shift of how people view of blockchain and how decentralization is not just about transacting commercial commodity, but also data, including your identity, are all decentralized. That is what we are most excited about.
The only way for us to achieve this is to have developer support, for we need the developers to build on the foundation we have to offer those exciting services.
* **We understand that developing a new blockchain is time consuming. As a community we are in a dark space to understand where exactly the development of FX right now.**
Zac: We are working hard on creating the testnet and eventually the mainnet. For the latest updates of Function X, what I can encourage you to do is to go on and subscribe to the Function X telegram group where discussions are made. We have formed the Function X Foundation and created the developer relations team, so that the Function X progress will go smoother and with more partnership from outside, whether it’s developers, third party companies, teleco, etc.
* **When FX goes live on the mainnet, will FX coin be used to stake and earn NPXS? how will staking work on that new mainnet?**
Zac: The NPXS/NPXSXEM staking will last till March 9, 2020 as announced. What we are committed is to create more use cases. For FX tokens, the use cases will be focusing on the Function X Chain and the use cases on Function X that include DApp on Function X and different hardware/software services.
* **When fx testnet will be available?**
Zac: First I would like to thank you for your constant support. In Q3, we plan to open Function X testnet so that we will be migrating and creating certain use cases that can be used on Function X testnet, starting with our own XWallet. Which means, the XWallet will migrate some features into Function X testnet, and slowly followed by our other Pundi X products, including XPhones, XPASS, Open Platform and Function X own developer related products from third parties.
submitted by crypt0hodl1 to PundiX [link] [comments]

For Trading Jan 15

For Trading January 15th
DJIA Catches UP But Doesn’t Hold
Bank Numbers Great But not For WFC
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market started off higher in the DJIA but lower in the Naz and S&P. The gains were on the back of the JPM and Citi numbers, while many of the FAANG names were tired. For the next 4 hours the DJIA clawed its way higher, to a new intraday high, but the “Tweeter-in-Chief” let the cat out of the bag that tariffs were not going away before elections. The market went from the high of 29,045 +147 straight down to -10 before recovering somewhat to close +32.62 (.11%), while the NASDAQ was -22.60 (.24%) and S&P 500 -4.98 (.15%), the Russell +6.13 (.37%) and the DJ Transports was the big winner +101.77 (.92%) on the back of DAL earnings dragging up the airlines and some positive action in the railroads. Market internals were slightly positive on NYSE at 4:1 but Naz was just 1:1. DJIA was 16:14 up with the only double digit changes, UNH +16 and JPM +11 and AAPL -29DPs. The feature of the day was the continuation of the big shorts running early only to falter by mid-day. AAPL was as high as $317.57 but fell back to $312.17 before the close. TSLA hit $547.41 +20 before coming back to $537.92. BYND managed a move back to $135.23 +20 before closing near the low @ $117.05 and then rallied to $126.30 in extended trading on news of a supply agreement but is currently $119.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: As I mentioned above, today’s market was generally running into exhaustion on the FAANG and other momentum names. The JPM and C earnings were excellent, but clearly WFC was a major disappointment. Margins and expenses were the main culprits and the stock, which has been on a steady slide since Q1 2018 from $66.31 on the news that it has been a dishonest, ill-run company which defrauded its customers (you might note my personal experience with them) finally got a new CEO, but he makes the Mark Zuckerburg “apology tour” look tame. I’m sure that people with short memories and attention spans will forget and come back into the stock, but they have a long way to go to rebuild their reputation. The stock closed $49.30 -2.81 (5.39%) and is down from $54 in the last 6 days. JPM was the star with better than expected numbers and return on equity and interest margins, but even it fell off late in the day and after trading over $140 it finished $138.80 +1.60 (1.17%). C did the same and after hitting $83.11 closed $81.91 +1.26 (1.56%).
Momenta (MNTA), a local biotech here in Cambridge working on immune-related diseases, gave guidance that was in-line for YE 2019, and gave guidance for growth in 2020 as well updates on trials and milestone expectations for the year, and the market took notice and the stock, up from $9.51 this past summer, and has had a steady climb to close yesterday $20.50 finished the day $25.36 +4.86 (23.71%) and traded $27.35 in extended hours with a last of $26.65. Also in the Bio-Pharma area was bad news from Stemline (STML) on reduced revenues from ELZONRIS their drug for BPDCN, blastic plasmacyytoi dendril cell neoplasm, an orphan disease with no other approved treatment. Unfortunately, the numbers were a bit lighter than expected and the stock, down from $11.38 on 12/24, had fallen to close yesterday $9.38, and fell on the news to $6.01 and closed $6.57 -2.86 (30.33%).
And while not the typical HOMERUN OF THE DAY the two-day move in TLRY bears mention. The stock was up yesterday to $17.37 +1.82 (11.7%)%) announced tonight that they have a new CFO Michael Kruteck (from Molson-Coors) and a new COO, Jon Levin (formerly with Revlon) and the stock went as high as $22.65 before finishing $21.95 +4.58 (26.36%) and a two-day move of $6.40 (41%). It has a way to go to try the highs at $300 in 2018.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB 5.07, ABBV +.46, REGN +8.89, ISRG -.43, MYL +.42, TEVA +.84 (9.16%) we took a nice gin on our 2/10 calls, VRTX +3.26, BHC +.40, INCY +4.60 (5.97%), ICPT +4.29 (3.96%), LABU +4.69, and IBB $121.11 +1.95 (1.64%).
CANNABIS: stocks were HIGHER with TLRY (see above), CGC +.99, CRON +.37, GWPH +1.89, ACB +.11, PYX +.19, APHA -.35, NBEV unchanged, ACRGF +.03, CURLF +.44, KERN +.14 and MJ $17.99 +.65 (3.75%). This was the group I called the best chance for a January Effect trade.
DEFENSE: was MIXED with LMT -3.02, RTN +.25, GD -.16, TXT +.31, UTX -.51, NOC -3.83, BWXT -.35, TDY +.90, and ITA $231.49 +1.06 (.46%).
RETAIL was MIXED with M -.09, JWN -.37, KSS +.29, DDS +.84, JCP -.04 (4.8%), WMT +.18, TGT +1.14, TJX +.20, RL -.36, UAA +.83, LULU -1.41, TPR +.53, CPRI -.34, and XRT $45.61 +.27 (.60%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -11.67, AMZN -26.25, AAPL -5.21, FB -2.91, NFLX -.92, NVDA -5.28, TSLA +11.62, BABA -4.68, BIDU -2.70, BOX -.47, IBM -.82, BA +1.80, CAT -.13 and XLK $95.08 -.45 (.47%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.28, JPM +1.70, BAC +.37, MS +.12, C +1.35, PNC +.91, AIG -.28, TRV +.39, AXP +.46 and XLF $30.84 -.08 (.19%).
OIL, $58.23 + .15. Today’s action was a quiet and short-range day. While we may have to test the $55 – 56.00 range again, if we turn higher now, I’d take a shot on this oversold market. The stocks were MIXED TO HIGHER with the market and XLE $59.84 +.01 (.02%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,544.60 -6.00 after breaking out “of the box” earlier last week, and the Iran news, we traded as high as $1,613 before turning down. I bought the GLD calls after we traded down to my area of support around $1,545 and after the small rally it fell back today. We got stopped out on the 50% Down Rule today but I expect that we will go back in if we stabilize overnight.
BITCOIN: closed $8,750 +550. We broke to the upside today and I was looking for a close above $8,280, which we easily cleared. I now expect a test of $9,200 to $9,500. We own 750 GBTC with an average of $8.99. GBTC closed $10.03 +.89 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to swingtrading [link] [comments]

Alt season in the coming weeks. Market sentiment analysis. Discussion welcome.

We have all been expectantly waiting for alt season. Reminiscing of the days where you could pick a random shitcoin and make 10x overnight. Many naysayers have said those days are over and that that kind of mania wont happen ever again. However, im calling it now. We will have an alt season in the coming month.
Bitcoin has now gone through its bear cycle and while some were predicting a 1.5k BTC, smart players were accumulating anywhere under 6k because they had a feeling that BTC had capitulated. I believe alts have capitulated.
After Bitcoin’s magnificent rally, which has overshot even the most bullish predictions in such a short time span, the market has become quite stagnant in the past few weeks. It is during this cool-off period that alt season occurs.
There have been 3 main observations i have made that lead me to write this post. I have already explained the first. The second goes in parallel after the aforementioned cool off period. That is market dominance.
BTC dominance reached a peak of ~71% while alts have been grinded to dust in Sat value. The alt market is ripe for profit. In the next weeks we will see a shift in market dominance from Bitcoin to alts.
The final observation is the most telling sign. In the past few days there have been several random alt coin pumps of +80%. I see this as little eruptions before big daddy Krakatoa blows.
In conclusion, if you expected me to draw some fancy lines on a chart, sorry to disappoint. This analysis is based purely of market sentiment and my previous experience being in the market since 2014.
Seeing as we are just beginning the larger Bitcoin 4 year cycle, there aren’t many new investors so this alt season will be short and sweet. Prepare your positions accordingly to make the most profit.
submitted by cryptonaut414 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Mirror trading international | Why you need to own 0,02 Bitcoin

Mirror trading international | Why you need to own 0,02 Bitcoin

Mirror trading international
Mirror trading international - Contrary to popular belief you can buy small amounts of Bitcoin which are called Bits or Satoshis. A satoshi is the smallest unit of a bitcoin, equivalent to 100 millionth of a bitcoin. Bitcoins can be split into smaller units to ease and facilitate smaller transactions. The satoshi was named after the founder, or founders, of bitcoin, known as Satoshi Nakamoto.
Bitcoin itself is 10 years old, and that is almost half the lifespan of the average currency which lasts approximately 27 years, according to a recent article The rise and fall of fiat currencies. The article references a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value. Twenty percent failed through hyperinflation, 21% were destroyed by war, 12% destroyed by independence, 24% were monetarily reformed, and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes.
Mirror trading international
Mirror trading international - The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years, with the shortest life span being one month. Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency in existence. At a ripe old age of 317 years it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency. However, success is relative. The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver, so it’s worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value. In other words, the most successful long standing currency in existence has lost 99.5% of its value.
Looking at the main title you are probably asking why you need to own 0,02 and how much is that worth? – Currently the price of Bitcoin is just shy of $8000, so the price would be about $160 or R 2500 (South African ZAR), which may or may not be a lot of money. Of course if you have the resources you may even want to get some more, or if you are like me ‘as much as you can’. I am not an investment advisor and this should not be taken as investment advice, but if you are thinking of going to an investment advisor who knows nothing about cryptocurrency or Bitcoin, well that is like asking a horse breeder to to tell you about horsepower in a car. So be wise in whatever you do.
Mirror trading international - Let’s look at what your 0.02 BTC could be worth using the Stock-to-Flow chart on https://digitalik.net/btc/sf\_model/# a page inspired by Medium article Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity written by Twitter user PlanB.
Mirror trading international - For my South African & Nigerian readers I have done a chart in ZAR and Naira which can be found at the bottom of this article.
As previously mentioned I am not an investment advisor, but putting some of your hard earned money into Bitcoin may just be more than worthwhile in a couple of years time.
Is it risky you may ask? Firstly without risk, there can be no reward. The biggest risk in my opinion is not to have considered the possibility today. Spending $164 in May 2025 will only get you 0,000123951 Bitcoin.
The other factor you may have to deal with is when your children and grandchildren ask you about the time you could have bought $26000 worth of Bitcoin for $164. What will your excuse be then?
Mirror trading international - There will only ever be 21 Million Bitcoin, and currently there are 18 Million, however due to carelessness many people have misplaced or lost their Bitcoin wallet passwords and keys. This has made Bitcoin even more scarce with an estimated 3-4 Million that have been lost through carelessness. So please be careful and keep your Bitcoin safe.
Mirror trading international - This could be the biggest generational wealth creating opportunity in history and you have an opportunity that may never happen again. My advice would be to get some Bitcoin even if that is just 1% of your investment portfolio. In my opinion it is worth the risk.
Mirror trading international
Mirror trading international
submitted by Mirrortradingintern to u/Mirrortradingintern [link] [comments]

An extensive guide for cashing out bitcoin and cryptocurrencies into private banks

Hey guys.
Merry Xmas !
I am coming back to you with a follow up post, as I have helped many people cash out this year and I have streamlined the process. After my original post, I received many requests to be more specific and provide more details. I thought that after the amazing rally we have been attending over the last few months, and the volatility of the last few days, it would be interesting to revisit more extensively.
The attitude of banks around crypto is changing slowly, but it is still a tough stance. For the first partial cash out I operated around a year ago for a client, it took me months to find a bank. They wouldn’t want to even consider the case and we had to knock at each and every door. Despite all my contacts it was very difficult back in the days. This has changed now, and banks have started to open their doors, but there is a process, a set of best practices and codes one has to follow.
I often get requests from crypto guys who are very privacy-oriented, and it takes me months to have them understand that I am bound by Swiss law on banking secrecy, and I am their ally in this onboarding process. It’s funny how I have to convince people that banks are legit, while on the other side, banks ask me to show that crypto millionaires are legit. I have a solid background in both banking and in crypto so I manage to make the bridge, but yeah sometimes it is tough to reconcile the two worlds. I am a crypto enthusiast myself and I can say that after years of work in the banking industry I have grown disillusioned towards banks as well, like many of you. Still an account in a Private bank is convenient and powerful. So let’s get started.
There are two different aspects to your onboarding in a Swiss Private bank, compliance-wise.
*The origin of your crypto wealth
*Your background (residence, citizenship and probity)
These two aspects must be documented in-depth.
How to document your crypto wealth. Each new crypto millionaire has a different story. I may detail a few fun stories later in this post, but at the end of the day, most of crypto rich I have met can be categorized within the following profiles: the miner, the early adopter, the trader, the corporate entity, the black market, the libertarian/OTC buyer. The real question is how you prove your wealth is legit.
1. Context around the original amount/investment Generally speaking, your first crypto purchase may not be documented. But the context around this acquisition can be. I have had many cases where the original amount was bought through Mtgox, and no proof of purchase could be provided, nor could be documented any Mtgox claim. That’s perfectly fine. At some point Mtgox amounted 70% of the bitcoin transactions globally, and people who bought there and managed to withdraw and keep hold of their bitcoins do not have any Mtgox claim. This is absolutely fine. However, if you can show me the record of a wire from your bank to Tisbane (Mtgox's parent company) it's a great way to start.
Otherwise, what I am trying to document here is the following: I need context. If you made your first purchase by saving from summer jobs, show me a payroll. Even if it was USD 2k. If you acquired your first bitcoins from mining, show me the bills of your mining equipment from 2012 or if it was through a pool mine, give me your slushpool account ref for instance. If you were given bitcoin against a service you charged, show me an invoice.
2. Tracking your wealth until today and making sense of it. What I have been doing over the last few months was basically educating compliance officers. Thanks God, the blockchain is a global digital ledger! I have been telling my auditors and compliance officers they have the best tool at their disposal to lead a proper investigation. Whether you like it or not, your wealth can be tracked, from address to address. You may have thought all along this was a bad feature, but I am telling you, if you want to cash out, in the context of Private Banking onboarding, tracking your wealth through the block explorer is a boon. We can see the inflows, outflows. We can see the age behind an address. An early adopter who bought 1000 BTC in 2010, and let his bitcoin behind one address and held thus far is legit, whether or not he has a proof of purchase to show. That’s just common sense. My job is to explain that to the banks in a language they understand.
Let’s have a look at a few examples and how to document the few profiles I mentioned earlier.
The trader. I love traders. These are easy cases. I have a ton of respect for them. Being a trader myself in investment banks for a decade earlier in my career has taught me that controlling one’s emotions and having the discipline to impose oneself some proper risk management system is really really hard. Further, being able to avoid the exchange bankruptcy and hacks throughout crypto history is outstanding. It shows real survival instinct, or just plain blissed ignorance. In any cases traders at exchange are easy cases to corroborate since their whole track record is potentially available. Some traders I have met have automated their trading and have shown me more than 500k trades done over the span of 4 years. Obviously in this kind of scenario I don’t show everything to the bank to avoid information overload, and prefer to do some snacking here and there. My strategy is to show the early trades, the most profitable ones, explain the trading strategy and (partially expose) the situation as of now with id pages of the exchanges and current balance. Many traders have become insensitive to the risk of parking their crypto at exchange as they want to be able to trade or to grasp an occasion any minute, so they generally do not secure a substantial portion on the blockchain which tends to make me very nervous.
The early adopter. Provided that he has not mixed his coin, the early adopter or “hodler” is not a difficult case either. Who cares how you bought your first 10k btc if you bought them below 3$ ? Even if you do not have a purchase proof, I would generally manage to find ways. We just have to corroborate the original 30’000 USD investment in this case. I mainly focus on three things here:
*proof of early adoption I have managed to educate some banks on a few evidences specifically related to crypto markets. For instance with me, an old bitcointalk account can serve as a proof of early adoption. Even an old reddit post from a few years ago where you say how much you despise this Ripple premined scam can prove to be a treasure readily available to show you were early.
*story telling Compliance officers like to know when, why and how. They are human being looking for simple answers to simple questions and they don’t want like to be played fool. Telling the truth, even without a proof can do wonders, and even though bluffing might still work because banks don’t fully understand bitcoin yet, it is a risky strategy that is less and less likely to pay off as they are getting more sophisticated by the day.
*micro transaction from an old address you control This is the killer feature. Send a $20 worth transaction from an old address to my company wallet and to one of my partner bank’s wallet and you are all set ! This is gold and considered a very solid piece of evidence. You can also do a microtransaction to your own wallet, but banks generally prefer transfer to their own wallet. Patience with them please. they are still learning.
*signature message Why do a micro transaction when you can sign a message and avoid potentially tainting your coins ?
*ICO millionaire Some clients made their wealth participating in ETH crowdsale or IOTA ICO. They were very easy to deal with obviously and the account opening was very smooth since we could evidence the GENESIS TxHash flow.
The miner Not so easy to proof the wealth is legit in that case. Most early miners never took screenshot of the blocks on bitcoin core, nor did they note down the block number of each block they mined. Until the the Slashdot article from August 2010 anyone could mine on his laptop, let his computer run overnight and wake up to a freshly minted block containing 50 bitcoins back in the days. Not many people were structured enough to store and secure these coins, avoid malwares while syncing the blockchain continuously, let alone document the mined blocks in the process. What was 50 BTC worth really for the early miners ? dust of dollars, games and magic cards… Even miners post 2010 are generally difficult to deal with in terms of compliance onboarding. Many pool mining are long dead. Deepbit is down for instance and the founders are MIA. So my strategy to proof mining activity is as follow:
*Focusing on IT background whenever possible. An IT background does help a lot to bring some substance to the fact you had the technical ability to operate a mining rig.
*Showing mining equipment receipts. If you mined on your own you must have bought the hardware to do so. For instance mining equipment receipts from butterfly lab from 2012-2013 could help document your case. Similarly, high electricity bill from your household on a consistent basis back in the day could help. I have already unlocked a tricky case in the past with such documents when the bank was doubtful.
*Wallet.dat files with block mining transactions from 2011 thereafter This obviously is a fantastic piece of evidence for both you and me if you have an old wallet and if you control an address that received original mined blocks, (even if the wallet is now empty). I will make sure compliance officers understand what it means, and as for the early adopter, you can prove your control over these wallet through a microtransaction. With these kind of addresses, I can show on the block explorer the mined block rewards hitting at regular time interval, and I can even spot when difficulty level increased or when halvening process happened.
*Poolmining account. Here again I have educated my partner bank to understand that a slush account opened in 2013 or an OnionTip presence was enough to corroborate mining activity. The block explorer then helps me to do the bridge with your current wallet.
*Describing your set up and putting it in context In the history of mining we had CPU, GPU, FPG and ASICs mining. I will describe your technical set up and explain why and how your set up was competitive at that time.
The corporate entity Remember 2012 when we were all convinced bitcoin would take over the world, and soon everyone would pay his coffee in bitcoin? How naïve we were to think transaction fees would remain low forever. I don’t blame bitcoin cash supporters; I once shared this dream as well. Remember when we thought global adoption was right around the corner and some brick and mortar would soon accept bitcoin transaction as a common mean of payment? Well, some shop actually did accept payment and held. I had a few cases as such of shops holders, who made it to the multi million mark holding and had invoices or receipts to proof the transactions. If you are organized enough to keep a record for these trades and are willing to cooperate for the documentation, you are making your life easy. The digital advertising business is also a big market for the bitcoin industry, and affiliates partner compensated in btc are common. It is good to show an invoice, it is better to show a contract. If you do not have a contract (which is common since all advertising deals are about ticking a check box on the website to accept terms and conditions), there are ways around that. If you are in that case, pm me.
The black market Sorry guys, I can’t do much for you officially. Not that I am judging you. I am a libertarian myself. It’s just already very difficult to onboard legit btc adopters, so the black market is a market I cannot afford to consider. My company is regulated so KYC and compliance are key for me if I want to stay in business. Behind each case I push forward I am risking the credibility and reputation I have built over the years. So I am sorry guys I am not risking it to make an extra buck. Your best hope is that crypto will eventually take over the world and you won’t need to cash out anyway. Or go find a Lithuanian bank that is light on compliance and cooperative.
The OTC buyer and the libertarian. Generally a very difficult case. If you bought your stack during your journey in Japan 5 years ago to a guy you never met again; or if you accumulated on https://localbitcoins.com/ and kept no record or lost your account, it is going to be difficult. Not impossible but difficult. We will try to build a case with everything else we have, and I may be able to onboard you. However I am risking a lot here so I need to be 100% confident you are legit, before I defend you. Come & see me in Geneva, and we will talk. I will run forensic services like elliptic, chainalysis, or scorechain on an extract of your wallet. If this scan does not raise too many red flags, then maybe we can work together ! If you mixed your coins all along your crypto history, and shredded your seeds because you were paranoid, or if you made your wealth mining professionally monero over the last 3 years but never opened an account at an exchange. ¯_(ツ)_/¯ I am not a magician and don’t get me wrong, I love monero, it’s not the point.
Cashing out ICOs Private companies or foundations who have ran an ICO generally have a very hard time opening a bank account. The few banks that accept such projects would generally look at 4 criteria:
*Seriousness of the project Extensive study of the whitepaper to limit the reputation risk
*AML of the onboarding process ICOs 1.0 have no chance basically if a background check of the investors has not been conducted
*Structure of the moral entity List of signatories, certificate of incumbency, work contract, premises...
*Fiscal conformity Did the company informed the authorities and seek a fiscal ruling.
For the record, I am not into the tax avoidance business, so people come to me with a set up and I see if I can make it work within the legal framework imposed to me.
First, stop thinking Switzerland is a “offshore heaven” Swiss banks have made deals with many governments for the exchange of fiscal information. If you are a French citizen, resident in France and want to open an account in a Private Bank in Switzerland to cash out your bitcoins, you will get slaughtered (>60%). There are ways around that, and I could refer you to good tax specialists for fiscal optimization, but I cannot organize it myself. It would be illegal for me. Swiss private banks makes it easy for you to keep a good your relation with your retail bank and continue paying your bills without headaches. They are integrated to SEPA, provide ebanking and credit cards.
For information, these are the kind of set up some of my clients came up with. It’s all legal; obviously I do not onboard clients that are not tax compliant. Further disclaimer: I did not contribute myself to these set up. Do not ask me to organize it for you. I won’t.
EU tricks
Swiss lump sum taxation Foreign nationals resident in Switzerland can be taxed on a lump-sum basis if they are not gainfully employed in our country. Under the lump-sum tax regime, foreign nationals taking residence in Switzerland may choose to pay an expense-based tax instead of ordinary income and wealth tax. Attractive cantons for the lump sum taxation are Zug, Vaud, Valais, Grisons, Lucerne and Berne. To make it short, you will be paying somewhere between 200 and 400k a year and all expenses will be deductible.
Switzerland has adopted a very friendly attitude towards crypto currency in general. There is a whole crypto valley in Zug now. 30% of ICOs are operated in Switzerland. The reason is that Switzerland has thrived for centuries on banking secrecy, and today with FATCA and exchange of fiscal info with EU, banking secrecy is dead. Regulators in Switzerland have understood that digital ledger technologies were a way to roll over this competitive advantage for the generations to come. Switzerland does not tax capital gains on crypto profits. The Finma has a very pragmatic approach. They have issued guidance- updated guidelines here. They let the business get organized and operate their analysis on a case per case basis. Only after getting a deep understanding of the market will they issue a global fintech license in 2019. This approach is much more realistic than legislations which try to regulate everything beforehand.
Italy new tax exemption. It’s a brand new fiscal exemption. Go to Aoste, get residency and you could be taxed a 100k/year for 10years. Yes, really.
Portugal What’s crazy in Europe is the lack of fiscal harmonization. Even if no one in Brussels dares admit it, every other country is doing fiscal dumping. Portugal is such a country and has proved very friendly fiscally speaking. I personally have a hard time trusting Europe. I have witnessed what happened in Greece over the last few years. Some of our ultra high net worth clients got stuck with capital controls. I mean no way you got out of crypto to have your funds confiscated at the next financial crisis! Anyway. FYI
Malta Generally speaking, if you get a residence somewhere you have to live there for a certain period of time. Being stuck in Italy is no big deal with Schengen Agreement, but in Malta it is a different story. In Malta, the ordinary residence scheme is more attractive than the HNWI residence scheme. Being an individual, you can hold a residence permit under this scheme and pay zero income tax in Malta in a completely legal way.
Monaco Not suitable for French citizens, but for other Ultra High Net worth individual, Monaco is worth considering. You need an account at a local bank as a proof of fortune, and this account generally has to be seeded with at least EUR500k. You also need a proof of residence. I do mean UHNI because if you don’t cash out minimum 30m it’s not interesting. Everything is expensive in Monaco. Real Estate is EUR 50k per square meter. A breakfast at Monte Carlo Bay hotel is 70 EUR. Monaco is sunny but sometimes it feels like a golden jail. Do you really want that for your kids?
Dubaï
  1. Set up a company in Dubaï, get your resident card.
  2. Spend one day every 6 month there
  3. ???
  4. Be tax free
US tricks Some Private banks in Geneva do have the license to manage the assets of US persons and U.S citizens. However, do not think it is a way to avoid paying taxes in the US. Opening an account at an authorized Swiss Private banks is literally the same tax-wise as opening an account at Fidelity or at Bank of America in the US. The only difference is that you will avoid all the horror stories. Horror stories are all real by the way. In Switzerland, if you build a decent case and answer all the questions and corroborate your case in depth, you will manage to convince compliance officers beforehand. When the money eventually hits your account, it is actually available and not frozen.
The IRS and FATCA require to file FBAR if an offshore account is open. However FBAR is a reporting requirement and does not have taxes related to holding an account outside the US. The taxes would be the same if the account was in the US. However penalties for non compliance with FBAR are very large. The tax liability management is actually performed through the management of the assets ( for exemple by maximizing long term capital gains and minimizing short term gains).
The case for Porto Rico. Full disclaimer here. I am not encouraging this. Have not collaborated on such tax avoidance schemes. if you are interested I strongly encourage you to seek a tax advisor and get a legal opinion. I am not responsible for anything written below. I am not going to say much because I am so afraid of uncle Sam that I prefer to humbly pass the hot potato to pwc From here all it takes is a good advisor and some creativity to be tax free on your crypto wealth if you are a US person apparently. Please, please please don’t ask me more. And read the disclaimer again.
Trust tricks Generally speaking I do not accept fringe fiscal situation because it puts me in a difficult situation to the banks I work with, and it is already difficult enough to defend a legit crypto case. Trust might be a way to optimize your fiscal situation. Belize. Bahamas. Seychelles. Panama, You name it. At the end of the day, what matters for Swiss Banks are the beneficial owner and the settlor. Get a legal opinion, get it done, and when you eventually knock at a private bank’s door, don’t say it was for fiscal avoidance you stupid ! You will get the door smashed upon you. Be smarter. It will work. My advice is just to have it done by a great tax specialist lawyer, even if it costs you some money, as the entity itself needs to be structured in a professional way. Remember that with trust you are dispossessing yourself off your wealth. Not something to be taken lightly.
“Anonymous” cash out. Right. I think I am not going into this topic, neither expose the ways to get it done. Pm me for details. I already feel a bit uncomfortable with all the info I have provided. I am just going to mention many people fear that crypto exchange might become reporting entities soon, and rightly so. This might happen anyday. You have been warned. FYI, this only works for non-US and large cash out.
The difference between traders an investors. Danmark, Holland and Germany all make a huge difference if you are a passive investor or if you are a trader. ICO is considered investing for instance and is not taxed, while trading might be considered as income and charged aggressively. I would try my best to protect you and put a focus on your investor profile whenever possible, so you don't have to pay 52% tax if you do not have to :D
Full cash out or partial cash out? People who have been sitting on crypto for long have grown an emotional and irrational link with their coins. They come to me and say, look, I have 50m in crypto but I would like to cash out 500k only. So first let me tell you that as a wealth manager my advice to you is to take some off the table. Doing a partial cash out is absolutely fine. The market is bullish. We are witnessing a redistribution of wealth at a global scale. Bitcoin is the real #occupywallstreet, and every one will discuss crypto at Xmas eve which will make the market even more supportive beginning 2018, especially with all hedge funds entering the scene. If you want to stay exposed to bitcoin and altcoins, and believe these techs will change the world, it’s just natural you want to keep some coins. In the meantime, if you have lived off pizzas over the last years, and have the means to now buy yourself an nice house and have an account at a private bank, then f***ing do it mate ! Buy physical gold with this account, buy real estate, have some cash at hands. Even though US dollar is worthless to your eyes, it’s good and convenient to have some. Also remember your wife deserves it ! And if you have no wife yet and you are socially awkward like the rest of us, then maybe cashing out partially will help your situation ;)
What the Private Banks expect. Joke aside, it is important you understand something. If you come around in Zurich to open a bank account and partially cash out, just don’t expect Private Banks will make an exception for you if you are small. You can’t ask them to facilitate your cash out, buy a 1m apartment with the proceeds of the sale, and not leave anything on your current account. It won’t work. Sadly, under 5m you are considered small in private banking. The bank is ok to let you open an account, provided that your kyc and compliance file are validated, but they will also want you to become a client and leave some money there to invest. This might me despicable, but I am just explaining you their rules. If you want to cash out, you should sell enough to be comfortable and have some left. Also expect the account opening to last at least 3-4 week if everything goes well. You can't just open an account overnight.
The cash out logistics. Cashing out 1m USD a day in bitcoin or more is not so hard.
Let me just tell you this: Even if you get a Tier 4 account with Kraken and ask Alejandro there to raise your limit over $100k per day, Even if you have a bitfinex account and you are willing to expose your wealth there, Even if you have managed to pass all the crazy due diligence at Bitstamp,
The amount should be fractioned to avoid risking your full wealth on exchange and getting slaughtered on the price by trading big quantities. Cashing out involves significant risks at all time. There is a security risk of compromising your keys, a counterparty risk, a fat finger risk. Let it be done by professionals. It is worth every single penny.
Most importantly, there is a major difference between trading on an exchange and trading OTC. Even though it’s not publicly disclosed some exchange like Kraken do have OTC desks. Trading on an exchange for a large amount will weight on the prices. Bitcoin is a thin market. In my opinion over 30% of the coins are lost in translation forever. Selling $10m on an exchange in a day can weight on the prices more than you’d think. And if you trade on a exchange, everything is shown on record, and you might wipe out the prices because on exchanges like bitstamp or kraken ultimately your counterparties are retail investors and the market depth is not huge. It is a bit better on Bitfinex. It is way better to trade OTC. Accessing the institutional OTC market is not easy, and that is also the reason why you should ask a regulated financial intermediary if we are talking about huge amounts.
Last point, always chose EUR as opposed to USD. EU correspondent banks won’t generally block institutional amounts. However we had the cases of USD funds frozen or delayed by weeks.
Most well-known OTC desks are Cumberlandmining (ask for Lucas), Genesis (ask for Martin), Bitcoin Suisse AG (ask for Niklas), circletrade, B2C2, or Altcoinomy (ask for Olivier)
Very very large whales can also set up escrow accounts for massive block trades. This world, where blocks over 30k BTC are exchanged between 2 parties would deserve a reddit thread of its own. Crazyness all around.
Your options: DIY or going through a regulated financial intermediary.
Execution trading is a job in itself. You have to be patient, be careful not to wipe out the order book and place limit orders, monitor the market intraday for spikes or opportunities. At big levels, for a large cash out that may take weeks, these kind of details will save you hundred thousands of dollars. I understand crypto holders are suspicious and may prefer to do it by themselves, but there are regulated entities who now offer the services. Besides, being a crypto millionaire is not a guarantee you will get institutional daily withdrawal limits at exchange. You might, but it will take you another round of KYC with them, and surprisingly this round might be even more aggressive that the ones at Private banks since exchange have gone under intense scrutiny by regulators lately.
The fees for cashing out through a regulated financial intermediary to help you with your cash out should be around 1-2% flat on the nominal, not more. And for this price you should get the full package: execution/monitoring of the trades AND onboarding in a private bank. If you are asked more, you are being abused.
Of course, you also have the option to do it yourself. It is a way more tedious and risky process. Compliance with the exchange, compliance with the private bank, trading BTC/fiat, monitoring the transfers…You will save some money but it will take you some time and stress. Further, if you approach a private bank directly, it will trigger a series of red flag to the banks. As I said in my previous post, they call a direct approach a “walk-in”. They will be more suspicious than if you were introduced by someone and won’t hesitate to show you high fees and load your portfolio with in-house products that earn more money to the banks than to you. Remember also most banks still do not understand crypto so you will have a lot of explanations to provide and you will have to start form scratch with them!
The paradox of crypto millionaires Most of my clients who made their wealth through crypto all took massive amount of risks to end up where they are. However, most of them want their bank account to be managed with a low volatility fixed income capital preservation risk profile. This is a paradox I have a hard time to explain and I think it is mainly due to the fact that most are distrustful towards banks and financial markets in general. Many clients who have sold their crypto also have a cash-out blues in the first few months. This is a classic situation. The emotions involved in hodling for so long, the relief that everything has eventually gone well, the life-changing dynamics, the difficulties to find a new motivation in life…All these elements may trigger a post cash-out depression. It is another paradox of the crypto rich who has every card in his hand to be happy, but often feel a bit sad and lonely. Sometimes, even though it’s not my job, I had to do some psychological support. A lot of clients have also become my friends, because we have the same age and went through the same “ordeal”. First world problem I know… Remember, cashing out is not the end. It’s actually the beginning. Don’t look back, don’t regret. Cash out partially, because it does not make sense to cash out in full, regret it and want back in. relax.
The race to cash out crypto billionaire and the concept of late exiter. The Winklevoss brothers are obviously the first of a series. There will be crypto billionaires. Many of them. At a certain level you can have a whole family office working for you to manage your assets and take care of your needs . However, let me tell you it’s is not because you made it so big that you should think you are a genius and know everything better than anyone. You should hire professionals to help you. Managing assets require some education around the investment vehicles and risk management strategies. Sorry guys but with all the respect I have for wallstreebet, AMD and YOLO stock picking, some discipline is necessary. The investors who have made money through crypto are generally early adopters. However I have started to see another profile popping up. They are not early adopters. They are late exiters. It is another way but just as efficient. Last week I met the first crypto millionaire I know who first bough bitcoin over 1000$. 55k invested at the beginning of this year. Late adopter & late exiter is a route that can lead to the million.
Last remarks. I know banks, bankers, and FIAT currencies are so last century. I know some of you despise them and would like to have them burn to the ground. With compliance officers taking over the business, I would like to start the fire myself sometimes. I hope this extensive guide has helped some of you. I am around if you need more details. I love my job despite all my frustration towards the banking industry because it makes me meet interesting people on a daily basis. I am a crypto enthusiast myself, and I do think this tech is here to stay and will change the world. Banks will have to adapt big time. Things have started to change already; they understand the threat is real. I can feel the generational gap in Geneva, with all these old bankers who don’t get what’s going on. They glaze at the bitcoin chart on CNBC in disbelief and they start to get it. This bitcoin thing is not a joke. Deep inside, as an early adopter who also intends to be a late exiter, as a libertarian myself, it makes me smile with satisfaction.
Cheers. @swisspb on telegram
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Rebalancing Crypto Portfolio: What is BAT, Brave, PAY & TenX?


I just sold off my entire PAY holdings to buy BAT tokens. My average cost for PAY tokens was around $0.90 and I bought 502 of them (current price is around $0.30). I had around 200 initially but added on another 300 late last year in Dec 2018. The reason is that the company is issuing a 1-to-1 new TenX token for every PAY token you hold. TenX token is a reward token that would be issued out in Q2 2019 and rewards (in the form of PAY) are expected to come in Q3 2019. The snapshot has already happened, meaning that I would receive 502 TenX tokens in a few months time, regardless of whether I sold my PAY tokens or not. You can read more about TenX token from their official blog post.
PAY will be the reward we receive starting from Q3 2019 and the payout will be made every quarterly depending on the company’s financial performance. My cost price for getting 502 PAY is around $458, which means I would need to get around $23 annually for a yield on cost of 5%. I will write a new post about TenX when I receive the new tokens and when the first rewards payout is distributed. Everything will happen in 2019, so stay tuned.
Who is TenX?
TenX is actually a crypto card company and their goal is simply to allow cryptocurrencies to be spent anywhere in the world. Here is actually a video of my first transaction buying Mac in bitcoin a few months back.
The experience was pretty cool, liberating and surreal I would say. You got to try it for yourself. For the first time in history, products and services can be bought with a currency that is not controlled by ANYONE or any intermediary. There won’t be bank bailouts, political issues, government failures, quantitative easing and that sort of stuff. The note in your wallet is basically an IOU, something the bank owes you, but the BTC in your wallet is solely yours and nobody can take it away from you, as long as you keep your private key safe.
We don’t really face all these problems in a first-world developed country, but the people who really need this are those from countries such as Venezuela. The country faces corruption and their notes are denominated in millions due to hyper-inflation. These worthless paper money are being dumped everywhere on the streets. I would not go too in-depth about this and you can read more about the inflationary impact of money from my previous post.
If you are interested, you can order a card from Tenx as the cards are available in Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand and recently Thailand. They are rolling out the cards in other regions progressively and their banking license in Europe is still in the process of happening. The orders for their Tenx card is insane. They are growing at around 10-15% every week I think.
Reason for Selling PAY Tokens
I sold off my PAY tokens because it was originally a reward token that gives out rewards from the pool of transaction fees when people spend using TenX card to all PAY token holders. However, they run into regulatory issues with this as “Securities Token” is an extremely sensitive topic in the regulatory arena. Hence, the TenX token was created with an added feature known as the ERC-1462. The rationale behind this is simply for compliance reasons; to comply with securities regulations and legal enforceability.
Utility of PAY Tokens
Now that TenX token has replaced the original utility of PAY as a “reward token”, you might ask what’s the function of PAY tokens now. This is a good question and the answer is: “nobody knows yet”. The team behind TenX is currently working on the utility of PAY tokens and no conclusive information is available at the moment. However, some of the possible ideas that were suggested include things like rebate fees, lower transaction fees when spending crypto or other specific uses for TenX services.
Since TenX token has already replaced PAY token as the reward paying coin, then it does not make sense for me to keep PAY tokens anymore. I am more interested in holding and buying the goose rather than keeping the eggs. Unless there is a strong utility function or incentive for me to hold the eggs, I really don’t see the rationale to hold my PAY tokens in the short-term. My investment philosophy in crypto is towards staking and rewards tokens that distribute some form of dividends one way or another. I believe the pool of money would work harder for me if I allocate it somewhere else.
What is Basic Attention Token (BAT) Token?
And where did I put it? I reallocated all my PAY tokens towards BAT tokens. So what is BAT? It’s not some kind of scammy, bs project. I don’t invest for the sake of quick random gains. I am actually grateful for the crypto winter as a “massive cleansing” is needed to drive out all the frauds and shitty projects that fail to make the cut. Those who survived will rebound even more resiliently and I am really looking forward to seeing the progress and adoption coming in. As the saying goes, “I’d rather lose money in crypto and end up being wrong than potentially miss the greatest investment opportunity of our generation.”
In my opinion, there are 2 things that would massively change in the next 5-10 years. One is China and the second is Blockchain. The latter has already become the most commonly discussed topics in World Economic Forums and these large giant monopolies are getting into the game. They have to because technological disruption is inevitable. You see Facebook, Tencent, Samsung, Microsoft, PwC, Deloitte, IBM, Walmart, Maersk, JP Morgan, Fidelity, Bakkt and the list goes on. They are all coming in. It’s only a matter of time. To find out more about institution money in crypto or how I got started, you can read about it in detail from my previous post.
Anyway, let’s cut the chase short.
So what’s BAT? To understand BAT, we must first understand the Brave Browser. BAT and Brave Browser work hand-in-hand and they are both founded by Brendan Eich, the person who created Javascript and Mozilla Firefox. I shall let the father of Javascript do the introduction rather than me writing all about it.
Problems of the Current Advertising Model
Problem #1: Our browsers are filled with countless trackers and Ads that are annoying and invasive. I am sure you have experienced the case where you researched something, and the ads related to what you are reading on started popping up everywhere the next moment. These are all run by trackers and the internet is attempting to build a digital profile about you so that they can sell you stuff.
Problem #2: Publishers are earning pennies. Well-known famous bloggers in Singapore can vouch to this. They don’t earn much from ad revenues on their sites. The problem with our current digital advertising industry is it is run by monopoly companies such as Google Ad sense and Facebook Ads. They take a huge cut of revenue (73%) from the publishers because they can. They have earned monopoly status.
Problem #3: There is a huge load of middlemen and intermediaries between the marketer and publisher. For a single ad unit to pass through to the publisher, it has to go through all these data aggregators, data management platform, data suppliers, analytics, verification and the list goes on. Money is being leaked out to all these central intermediaries and it adds up to a high transaction cost to brand ad campaigns.
Problem #4: Users often use ad blockers and over 600 million users and phones run ad-blocking to block off unwanted annoying ads. The result of this affects advertisers and publishers as their “ads” are not being directed towards users. Targetting is poor and users are ignoring ads.
Problem #5: The whole advertising ecosystem is plagued with frauds, malware, ransom-ware and some marketers are being fooled by bogus websites. There are tons of fraud bots going around the internet and our browser is vulnerable to all these hacks & viruses.
How can Brave & BAT solve the problems?
I will not go too in-depth with the elaborations as this post is meant to document the recent transaction I made on my crypto portfolio. Basically, Brave is a browser that is designed to block off ALL trackers and Ads. This result in a browser that is faster, more secure and more private. The BAT token is a utility token for 3 groups of people: Users, Publishers and Advertisers. Users are being paid with BAT tokens to view ads if they choose to opt-in for the option to view ads. Advertisers are required to purchase BAT tokens to advertise. Publishers are being paid based on the attention time users spent on the sites. Users can choose to make micro-contributions to tip their favourite content creators and websites. Publishers can offer premium content to users and payments can be in the form of BAT tokens. To read more about how the Brave Browser and BAT tokens work, you can read up about it over here.
How does it look like?
Here is an example of using the Brave browser. I have been using Brave for about 1 month and have since replaced Brave as the default browser over Google Chrome. You can see the number of Ads and trackers that are being blocked. Youtube and FB have a ton of all these trackers and ads. It’s really surprising to see the statistics. Not only that, the browser load time is faster, more secure and the best part? You are being PAID to view Ads. I don’t see any reasons not to like Brave. They actually did a test to compare between Chrome, Brave and Firefox. The results are 2x faster in desktop and 2-8x faster on mobile.
It would look something like this, where you can opt-in to receive BAT rewards for viewing Ads. If you don’t want these annoying Ads, you can disable the Brave Rewards function and no ads would pop up on your screen. Unfortunately, Ads are currently not available in Singapore yet, but they will be rolling out to the whole world by end of 2019. Countries such as the US, Canada, UK, France and Germany are already using it now. This feature was just released 3 weeks ago on 25 April 2019. People from these countries have already received their first payout of BAT tokens just from viewing ads on their browsers as of 8 May 2019. I would write a new post on this when ads are available in Singapore. Can’t wait for it.
Are you a Content Creator, Blogger, Youtuber, Website Owner?
If you fit into any of the above categories. Good news for you! Content creators form an integral part of the entire ecosystem and there is a huge opportunity for you to earn BAT tokens in the future. You are being paid for the content that you publish on the web. The more people visit your sites, the more time they spent on your sites, the more revenue you earn from their attention. Essentially, you are being paid by your audience based on the attention they spent on your site rather than relying on menial ad revenues. I would highly recommend that you sign up as a verified publisher on their web page. I have already verified my website. \This is not an affiliate link and I don’t earn any commissions*. It’s really up to you whether you want to be a verified publisher and earn BAT tokens in the future.
Why BAT Tokens?
The reason why I replaced PAY with BAT into my portfolio is because of the following charts which I am about to show you now.
The estimated download for Brave browser on Android is 25 million and an estimated 2 million downloads are being hit every month. The growth and adoption of Brave browser are turning parabolic as you can see from the charts above.
What Drives the Value of BAT Tokens?
Why is that so? The entire value of Brave and BAT comes from the network effect. It’s just like Grab, Uber or Airbnb. The more people use it, the more valuable the company will be. It starts with getting publishers onboard. After which, YouTubers, bloggers and publishers would spread the word out to their thousands and millions of subscribers and followers because they can earn 5 BAT tokens for every active download. There is an incentive for users to use Brave browser because it’s ad-free, faster, more secure and they are being PAID to view ads. This positive loop cycle compounds over time and it would eventually lead to an exponential growth of adoption in a short span of time. Do note that we are just talking about countries like the US, Canada, UK, France and Germany, when ads are available in other regions, especially when it comes to Asia, this thing will explode.
So why does having more people using Brave browser increase the value of BAT tokens? Well, this is because as mentioned earlier, advertisers have to use BAT tokens to advertise. If I told you that there are 500 million users on Brave and your ads are targeted to users based on their profile match and they are willing to view your ads voluntarily because they are being paid to do so, would you be interested in it? Brendan Eich has confirmed that there are 1,300 advertisers on Brave ads which are on the waiting list right now. When the floodgate opens, it would be interesting to see how the market reacts to it.
Dethroning Google’s Ad Business?
If you are vested on Alphabet or Google, this is something you should watch out real close. Their advertising revenue takes up a huge chunk of the group’s total revenue and its recent Q1 2019 earnings have declined due to lower contribution from ads. The switching cost between browsers is practically zero. If a growing number of users, publishers and advertisers are migrating from Google Chrome to Brave Browser, which is already happening now, Google’s advertising business would inevitably take a hit and this is perhaps the essence of what blockchain is all about. To decentralise monopolistic power and transfer them to individual users.
Potential Risks and Competition
The biggest risk just as in any other crypto companies is always regulations. Regulation is always a pain in the ass, for the right reasons. But an overly-regulated country can stifle innovation and development of new technologies. When crypto first took off, regulators couldn’t be bothered as it does not pose a systematic risk to their financial systems. But the technology has grown so fast that it is too big to ignore. Hence, regulators have to play catch up in understanding the benefits and risks of the technology. Tax is another big issue. Because of this time lag between the early adopters and regulators, the whole area is still developing and it’s pretty much in the grey area. It reminds me of the quote by Mahatma Gandhi.
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”
Facebook is rumoured to be launching their own FB coin soon and they have recently removed their ban on cryptocurrency ads. There might be competition from the monopolies if they ever decided to go into crypto. But the good thing is that Brave has already gotten the first-mover advantage.
Using Kyber Swap to swap PAY to BAT
For the above reasons and logical reasoning, I have concluded to myself that PAY has no clear direction on the utility of its tokens (at the moment) and it does not make sense for me to hold them. Furthermore, I am more interested in the TenX tokens (goose) rather than the PAY tokens (eggs). BAT, on the other hand, is showing promising potentials and I can see how value is being derived in the long-term. As such, I have decided to swap ALL my PAY tokens into BAT tokens.
In the past, whenever we want to exchange one altcoin for another, the process would be to transfer your alts into an exchange, sell it for BTC, use that BTC to buy the other alt and transfer them back to your wallet. This whole process incurs gas fees, withdrawal fees, exchange rate fluctuations and the transactions can take hours to be verified if the network is congested. It is slow, inefficient and costly.
Fortunately, Kyber Network has introduced an innovative application tool known as the Kyber Swap. All you have to do is to connect your Metamask and swap your tokens instantly in a decentralized manner. Decentralized meaning that you are exchanging your tokens with the other party directly without going through a middleman such as an exchange. The liquidity providers are usually the market makers, token holders and token projects. The best part? Whenever you are doing a token-to-token swap, Kyber network will process the BEST conversion rate from all the reserves so that the most competitive rate is being carried out.
Conclusion
In conclusion, I can’t guarantee that I made the right choice. After all, I am selling PAY when it’s at its all-time low and buying BAT when it’s near its all-time high. My decision is based on the logical reasoning that I have made. Nevertheless, both TenX and BAT/Brave are equally solid projects which are growing at a rapid pace. I am waiting for TenX to release their TenX tokens by Q2 2019 and ads to be available in Singapore. When TenX tokens are issued out, PAY would probably spike up and all the short-term traders would get in. There is an opportunity to do an arbitrage here, but I wouldn’t take that risk.
I actually received my first payout in BAT when some random stranger decided to tip me. If you are interested in trying out the new Brave browser, here is the download link for it. Do give it a shot, play around with it and if you like it, remember to set the browser as your default.
The loading page is much FASTER and your browser will have ZERO ads and trackers. Furthermore, when ads are available in Singapore, you will be getting PAID to view ads in the future. The payout will be made to you on the 8th of May every month. \There is a referral fee of 5 BAT tokens for every active download (using the browser for at least 30 days)* If you are a blogger or you own a website, do consider this and I would really recommend you to verify your website. It is a potential alternative source of income for yourself. Click here to find out more if you are a content creator.
This is really the next generation of internet browser and it really makes us rethink the way users, advertisers and publishers interact in the digital advertising industry. The current rate of growth is exponential and I do see this taking off in the long-term, so sit tight! Revolution is coming. Keep a lookout for the next post when TenX tokens are distributed and when ads are available in Singapore.
https://brave.com/old707
submitted by older_many to u/older_many [link] [comments]

Crypto is dead, long live crypto

When in doubt, zoom out.
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/rj2mYmlJ-Bitcoin-is-dead-long-live-Bitcoin-bulls-v-bears-since-2011/
So, I had a look at BTC since 2011 on a weekly. It's basically just a continuation pattern of bull flags, save that Mt Gox prolonged bear markets, where a few big old bear flags reared their heads.
Where we are right now might seem like the end of the world, and I know people are hurting, but it's just another milestone on the journey of crypto.
It won't last forever, and BTC (and the rest of the market) will eventually break out of the current huge bull flag, probably soon, going on the span of other downtrends in history.
The chart is also here as a flat image: https://uk.tradingview.com/x/9ccjwync/
Edit for the pedant below: this is a LOG scale chart
submitted by moorbles to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Whiplash: Bitcoin Slides Below $6500, Surges Above $7100 in 8-Hour Span (current BTC/USD price is $7,277.16)

Latest Bitcoin News:
Whiplash: Bitcoin Slides Below $6500, Surges Above $7100 in 8-Hour Span
Other Related Bitcoin Topics:
Bitcoin Price | Bitcoin Mining | Blockchain
The latest Bitcoin news has been sourced from the CoinSalad.com Bitcoin Price and News Events page. CoinSalad is a web service that provides real-time Bitcoin market info, charts, data and tools. Follow us on Twitter @CoinSalad.
submitted by coinsaladcom to CoinSalad [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Market Cycle: Headed Towards Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity

Author: CoinLive News Team Jun 18, 2018 at 12:47
(Click the link to visualize the article from the original source)
There are many venues one can venture when it comes to analyzing the state of affairs in a particular market. However, from a psychological perspective, it is human nature to see repetitive patterns play out over and over. In this article, we want to bring to the readers' attention the psychology behind a market cycle, how it tends to trick one's emotions, and what stage the crypto space might be at.

Understanding the Psychology of a Market Cycle

Credit goes to Karen Bennett, writer at cheatsheet.com, whose chart (below) on the psychology of a market cycle has become an absolute classic to explain the different emotional phases of any volatile market. The chart illustrates the type of feelings and sentiment traders and investors alike experience as the price fluctuates. These inevitable human emotions, coupled with market fundamentals, help to explain the price dynamics and what we should expect based on the type of emotional phase we project to be in.
In this article, we will attempt to draw some parallels between the chart of Bitcoin and the psychological cycles investors go through as described by Karen Bennett. Let's, first of all, explore the chart below and extract a few insights out of it. It is of cardinal importance to always be reminded that markets go through periods of expansion and contraction, which describes the times where the market alternates between trending in a defined direction and moving sideways. This phenomenon can be extrapolated to multiple facets of our lives (thermal, matter, solid, liquids...).
It is during the periods of most contraction that the majority of the market crowd will leave by selling their holding (weak-handed players) to those that are interested in buying to accumulate at what is perceived as attractive prices. The contraction of the market partly occurs due to the compressive effect of those strong-handed players absorbing selling orders.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1000/content_psychology_cycles.png)

Applying Market Cycle Psychology to Bitcoin & Market Cap

By comparing the psychology of market moves and its emotions to the rollercoaster seen in Bitcoin ever since its peak from its irrationally exuberant rally from Dec-Jan, we have taken the initiative to draw what we believe could be some common parallels that may provide some extra insights about the potential market phase we might be at, as perceived by market participants. In our opinion, a period of depression, which leads up to disbelief might be the most accurate terrain we find ourselves at this moment in time, especially after the harsh sell-off resumption seen ever since mid-May.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1003/content_btc01.png)
We can best define this period as the one that sees a consistent loss of hope, with investors no longer expecting a significant upward correction in the near future that may get them out of the deep hole they find themselves in. A significant portion of market participants give up on the idea that their capital has been wisely invested. We seem to have entered a phase where investors aim to save whatever funds left in desperation even if they realize that cutting the losses for whatever capital is left will still represent a major setback.
This phase leads to a potential paradigm shift in their belief about the underlying fundamentals that they first considered so disruptive, or they simply come to the realization that the only reason they invested was out of an adrenaline-led hype vs a proper understanding of the technology and its revolutionary consequences to advance society as we know it. This loss in the overall interest keeps prices at depressed levels, which tends to coincide, at times, with the lowest point in the current cycle.
Stable prices in a compressed range tend to follow, in what might be an arduous and torturous stage lasting quite some time before a new bullish trend re-emerges. Note how the ATR has been consistently compressing since the peak, which suggests we are gradually heading towards the compression phase and point of maximum financial opportunity.

Keep in Mind Return to the 'Mean'

Another critical component to understand is the term "return to the mean". Given that the price of Bitcoin is now way below the most widely followed moving averages (5, 100, 200-Daily Moving Average), one could apply the usefulness of drawing trending lines to estimate where the fair value or mean may be located. Note, different interpretations (lines drawn) should be considered.
By connecting the most number of highs /lows from various price sequences, we come up with at least 3 different trendlines that serve as an estimate to calculate where the market may perceive the mean or fair value of Bitcoin. No one can really tell whether the first green box is the one the market is paying most attention to (follow volumes for valuable tips). However, this exercise helps us determine, from a market cycle/mean reversion standpoint, that the range between $6.5k and $3k appears to be an area where a period of accumulation (perception of value) will most likely occur.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1005/content_btc02.png)
Mean reversion is extremely critical. Over a short span, the markets can behave in such an erratic manner, and anything can happen, however, when we scan the market conditions as part of an extended period of time, which may go from months to years - that's when statistics and certain patterns tend to more accurately play out, with 2 plus 2 more often than not equal 4. Performance that is well above average eventually reverts back to an equilibrium point as it no longer can defy gravity, while performance that is well below average has a tendency to improve.
At CoinLive we are always open for interpretations that can be logically explained and have a mathematical backing. We have been long endorsing the approach taken by the user of BitcoinTalk that goes by the name Trolololo and its logarithmic non-linear mean regression chart. According to the chart below, we might be closer to the upper edge of the $6.5k-$3k range, although as usual, a caveat applies. In the past, the price of Bitcoin has had a tendency to spend significant periods of time in an undervalued area below the mean reversion (red line).
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1006/content_btc03.png)
The formula%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809) that utilizes can also be applied to the total crypto market capitalization (currently at $270b), which can be found below:
![103.23720 log((weeks since Friday, January 9, 2009/week) - 8.81809)](http://www4d.wolframalpha.com/Calculate/MSP/MSP131ei58i8420g3f1eh00005h2a3221h21b15i6?MSPStoreType=image/gif&s=37) = ![1.78×1011](http://www4d.wolframalpha.com/Calculate/MSP/MSP171ei58i8420g3f1eh00002icb526a8ff605ie?MSPStoreType=image/gif&s=37)
Twitter user @TommyWorldPower, a crypto influencer and Creator of @energicrypto, notes: "My observations of the market is that current fair value of market: $175B. Current growth rate ~150%/yr (decaying at 20%/yr, so next year would be ~120% growth). Thus, though we are overvalued now, we would reach fair market value in about 8 months at current valuation. I'm hodling."

What Can We Learn from the Analysis?

Some of the main takeaways from this analysis include:
submitted by Ivo333 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Crypto Investing Guide: Useful resources and tools, and how to create an investment strategy

Lots of people have PM'd me asking me the same questions on where to find information and how to put together their portfolio so I decided to put a guide for crypto investors, especially those who have only been in a few months and are still confused.
Many people entered recently at a time when the market was rewarding the very worst type of investment behavior. Unfortunately there aren't many guides and a lot of people end up looking at things like Twitter or the trending Youtube crypto videos, which is dominated by "How to make $1,00,000 by daytrading crypto" and influencers like CryptoNick.
So I'll try to put together a guide from what I've learned and some tips, on how to invest in this asset class. This is going to be Part 1, in another post later I'll post a systematic approach to valuation and picking individual assets.

Getting started: Tools and resources

You don't have to be a programmer or techie to invest in crypto, but you should first learn the basics of how it functions. I find that this video by 3Blue1Brown is the best introduction to what a blockchain actually is and how it functions, because it explains it clearly and simply with visuals while not dumbing it down too much. If you want a more ELI5 version with cute cartoons, then Upfolio has a nice beginner's intro to the blockchain concept and quick descriptions of top 100 cryptocurrencies. I also recommend simply going to Wikipedia and reading the blockchain and cryptocurrency page and clicking onto a few links in, read about POS vs POW...etc. Later on you'll need this information to understand why a specific use case may or may not benefit from a blockchain structure. Here is a quick summary of the common terms you should know.
Next you should arm yourself with some informational resources. I compiled a convenient list of useful tools and sites that I've used and find to be worthy of bookmarking:
Market information
Analysis tools
Portfolio Tracking
Youtube
I generally don't follow much on Youtube because it's dominated by idiocy like Trevon James and CryptoNick, but there are some that I think are worthy of following:

Constructing a Investment Strategy

I can't stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.

Setting ROI targets

Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people now on this sub and on other sites making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
But its important to temper your hype about returns and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year. The only reason we saw so much upward price action is because of fiat monetary base expansion from people FOMO-ing in due to media coverage. People are hoping to ride the bubble and sell to a greater fool in a few months, it is classic Greater Fool Theory. That's it. Its not because we are seeing any mass increase in adoption or actual widespread utility with cryptocurrency. We passed the $1,000 psychological marker again for Bitcoin which we hadn't seen since right before the Mt.Gox disaster, and it just snowballed the positivity as headline after headline came out about the price growth. However those unexciting returns of 10% a month are not only the norm, but much more healthy for an alternative investment class. Here are the annual returns for Bitcoin for the last few years:
Year BTC Return
2017 1,300%
2016 120%
2015 35%
2014 -60%
2013 5300%
2012 150 %
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Tron before it crashed back down, but that 3X annual return is better than Bitcoin's return every year except the year right before the last market meltdown and 2017. I have been saying for a while now that we are due for a major correction and every investor now should be planning for that possibility through proper allocation and setting return expectations that are reasonable.
How to set a realistic ROI target
How do I set my own personal return target?
Basically I aim to achieve a portfolio return of roughly 385% annually (3.85X increase per year) or about 11.89% monthly return when compounded. How did I come up with that target? I base it on the average compounded annual growth return (CAGR) over the last 3 years on the entire market:
Year Total Crypto Market Cap
Jan 1, 2014: $10.73 billion
Jan 1, 2017: $615 billion
Compounded annual growth return (CAGR): (615/10.73)1/3 = 385%
My personal strategy is to sell my portfolio every December then buy back into the market at around the beginning of February and I intend to hold on average for 3 years, so this works for me but you may choose to do it a different way for your own reasons. I think this is a good average to aim for as a general guideline because it includes both the good years (2017) and the bad (2014). Once you have a target you can construct your risk profile (low risk vs. high risk category coins) in your portfolio. If you want to try for a higher CAGR than about 385% then you will likely need to go into more highly speculative picks. I can't tell you what return target you should set for yourself, but just make sure its not depended on you needing to achieve continual near vertical parabolic price action in small cap shillcoins because that isn't sustainable.
As the recent January dip showed while the core cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum would dip an X percentage, the altcoins would often drop double or triple that amount. Its a very fragile market, and the type of dumb behavior that people were engaging in that was profitable in a bull market (chasing pumps, going all in on a microcap shillcoin, having an attention span of a squirrel...etc) will lead to consequences. Just like they jumped on the crypto bandwagon without thinking about risk adjusted returns, they will just as quickly jump on whatever bandwagon will be used to blame for the deflation of the bubble, whether the blame is assigned to Wall Steet and Bitcoin futures or Asians or some government.
Nobody who pumped money into garbage without any use case or utility will accept that they themselves and their own unreasonable expectations for returns were the reason for the gross mispricing of most cryptocurrencies.

Risk Management

Quanitifying risk in crypto is surprisingly difficult because the historical returns aren't normally distributed, meaning that tools like Sharpe Ratio and other risk metrics can't really be used as intended. Instead you'll have to think of your own risk tolerance and qualitatively evaluate how risky each crypto is based on the team, the use case prospects, the amount of competition and the general market risk.
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm) as ultimately everything is tied to how Bitcoin does, but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri).
Rt = Rm +Ri
The market risk is something you cannot avoid, if some China FUD comes out about regulations on Bitcoin then your investment in solid altcoin picks will go down too along with Bitcoin. This (Rm) return is essentially what risk you undertake to have a market ROI of 385% I talked about above. What you can minimize though is the Ri, the aset specific risks with the team, the likelihood they will actually deliver, the likelihood that their solution will be adopted. Unfortunately there is no one way to do this, you simply have to take the time to research and form your own opinion on how risky it really is before allocating a certain percentage to it. Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
  • guaranteed promises of large returns (protip: that's a Ponzi)
  • float allocations that give way too much to the founder
  • vague whitepapers
  • vague timelines
  • no clear use case
  • Github with no useful code and sparse activity
  • a team that is difficult to find information on or even worse anonymous
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into "low" risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
  • Low Risk Core - This is the exchange pairing cryptos and those that are well established. These are almost sure to be around in 5 years, and will recover after any bear market. Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are in this class of risk, and I would also argue Monero.
  • Medium Risk Speculative - These would be cryptos which generally have at least some product and are reasonably established, but higher risk than Core. Things like ZCash, Ripple, NEO..etc.
  • High Risk Speculative - This is anything created within the last few months, low caps, shillcoins, ICOs...etc. Most cryptos are in this category, most of them will be essentially worthless in 5 years.
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology. If you're a newbie who doesn't understand the tech and has no idea how to value assets, your risk tolerance should be lower than a programmer who understand the tech or a financial analyst who is experienced in valuation metrics.
Right now the trio of BTC-ETH-LTC account for 55% of the market cap, so between 50-70% of your portfolio in low Risk Core for newbies is a great starting point. Then you can go down to 25-30% as you gain confidence and experience. But always try to keep about 1/3rd in safe core positions. Don't go all in on speculative picks.
Core principles to minimize risk
  • Have the majority of your holdings in things you feel good holding for at least 2 years. Don't use the majority of your investment for day trading or short term investing.
  • Consider using dollar cost averaging to enter a position. This generally means investing a X amount over several periods, instead of at once. You can also use downward biased dollar cost averaging to mitigate against downward risk. For example instead of investing $1000 at once in a position at market price, you can buy $500 at the market price today then set several limit orders at slightly lower intervals (for example $250 at 5% lower than market price, $250 at 10% lower than market price). This way your average cost of acquisition will be lower if the crypto happens to decline over the short term.
  • Never chase a pump. Its simply too risky as its such an inefficient and unregulated market. If you continue to do it, most of your money losing decisions will be because you emotionally FOMO-ed into gambling on a symbol.
  • Invest what you can afford to lose. Don't have more than 5-10% of your net worth in crypto.
  • Consider what level of loss you can't accept in a position with a high risk factor, and use stop-limit orders to hedge against sudden crashes. Set you stop price at about 5-10% above your lowest limit. Stop-limit orders aren't perfect but they're better than having no hedging strategy for a risky microcap in case of some meltdown. Only you can determine what bags you are unwilling to hold.
  • Diversify across sectors and rebalance your allocations periodically. Keep about 1/3rd in low risk core holdings.
  • Have some fiat in reserve at a FDIC-insured exchange (ex. Gemini), and be ready to add to your winning positions on a pullback.
  • Remember you didn't actually make any money until you take some profits, so take do some profits when everyone else is at peak FOMO-ing bubble mode. You will also sleep much more comfortably once you take out the equivalent of your principal.

Portfolio Allocation

Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization but I generally like to bring it down to:
  • Core holdings - essentially the Low Risk Core segment
  • Platform segment
  • Privacy segment
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment
This is merely what I use, but I'm sure you can think of your own. The key point I have is to try to invest your medium and high risk picks in a segment you understand well, and in which you can relatively accurately judge risk. If you don't understand anything about how banking works or SWIFT or international settlement layers, don't invest in Stellar. If you have no idea how a supply chain functions, avoid investing in VeChain (even if it's being shilled to death on Reddit at the moment just like XRB was last month).
What's interesting is that often we see like-coin movement, for example when a coin from one segment pumps we will frequently see another similar coin in the same segment go up (think Stellar following after Ripple).
Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down.
You should set price targets for each of your holdings, which is a whole separate discussion I'll go in Part 2 of the guide.

Summing it up

This was meant to get you think about what return targets you should set for your portfolio and how much risk you are willing to take and what strategies you can follow to mitigate that risk.
Returns around 385% (average crypto market CAGR over the last 3 years) would be a good target to aim for while remaining realistic, you can tweak it a bit based on your own risk tolerance. What category of risk your individual crypto picks should be will be determined by how much more greed you have for above average market return. A portfolio of 50% core holdings, 30% medium risk in a sector you understand well and 20% in high risk speculative is probably what the average portfolio should look like, with newbies going more towards 70% core and only 5% high risk speculative.
Just by thinking about these things you'll likely do better than most crypto investors, because most don't think about this stuff, to their own detriment.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

C-Span Digital Currency Bitcoin Congress Live 18/11/13 How to Use Bitcoin Exchange Rate Charts Bitcoin Chart Technical Analysis for 11-21-2019 C-SPAN Live Stream - YouTube Bitcoin featured on CSpan!

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C-Span Digital Currency Bitcoin Congress Live 18/11/13

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